台风“艾云尼”动态间接经济损失评估

Based on the input-output table of Guangdong Province in 2015, the dynamic changes of the indirect economic losses caused by Typhoon "Ewiniar" in Guangdong Province in 2018 and its impacts on major economic sectors were evaluated through the input-output model. The results showed that the indirect economic losses caused by Typhoon "Ewiniar" in Guangdong Province were 551 million yuan, accounting for about 22% of the direct economic losses, and the total economic losses reached 3.101 billion yuan, accounting for 0.12% of the GDP of Guangdong Province in the second quarter of 2018. The highly sensitive sectors affected by the typhoon were ① agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, ② water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, and ③ transportation, warehousing and postal services. Although this typhoon did not cause direct economic losses to the financial insurance, real estate, business and tourism sectors, due to the perfect industrial chain and the continuously enhanced cluster effect in Guangdong Province, the total amount of indirect economic losses suffered by these sectors was about 128 million yuan. The parametric sensitivity analysis showed that the maximum excess production capacity of the post-disaster sector and the time required for the post-disaster sector's production capacity to increase to the maximum value are two important indicators affecting the progress of post-disaster recovery and reconstruction. In conclusion, considering both direct and indirect economic losses and based on the simulation results of the post-disaster recovery of different sectors, the dynamic changes of indirect economic losses in the disaster recovery process were fully analyzed.

基于广东省2015年投入产出表,通过投入产出模型评估了2018年台风“艾云尼”对广东省造成的间接经济损失的动态变化及其对主要经济部门的影响。结果显示,台风“艾云尼”造成广东省间接经济损失为5. 51亿元,约占直接经济损失的22%,总经济损失达到31. 01亿元,占广东省2018年第二季度GDP的0. 12%。受台风影响的高敏感部门是①农林牧渔业、②水利、环境和公共设施管理业以及③交通运输、仓储和邮电业。虽然此次台风未对金融保险、房地产、商务和旅游业部门造成直接经济损失,但是由于广东省完善的产业链以及不断增强的集群效应,这些部门受到的间接经济损失的总额约为1. 28亿元。通过参数敏感性分析表明,灾后部门最大超额生产能力和灾后部门生产能力提高到最大值所需时间是影响灾后恢复重建进度的两个重要指标。综上所述,综合考虑直接和间接经济损失,根据不同部门灾后恢复的模拟结果,充分解析间接经济损失在灾害恢复过程中的动态变化。