Is the Density of Alcohol Establishments Related to Nonviolent Crime?

Objective: We examined the associations between the density of alcohol establishments and five types of nonviolent crime across urban neighborhoods. Method: Data from the city of Minneapolis, MN, in 2009 were aggregated and analyzed at the neighborhood level. We examined the association between alcohol establishment density and five categories of nonviolent crime: vandalism, nuisance crime, public alcohol consumption, driving while intoxicated, and underage alcohol possession/consumption. A Bayesian approach was used for model estimation accounting for spatial auto-correlation and controlling for relevant neighborhood demographics. Models were estimated for total alcohol establishment density and then separately for off-premise establishments (e.g., liquor and convenience stores) and on-premise establishments (e.g., bars and restaurants). Results: We found positive associations between density and each crime category. The association was strongest for public consumption and weakest for vandalism. We estimated that a 3.3%-10.9% increase across crime categories would result from a 20% increase in neighborhood establishment density. Similar results were seen for on- and off-premise establishments, although the strength of the associations was lower for off-premise density. Conclusions: Our results indicate that communities should consider the potential increase in nonviolent crime associated with an increase in the number of alcohol establishments within neighborhoods. (J. Stud. Alcohol Drugs, 73, 21-25, 2012)

目的：我们研究了城市社区内酒类经营场所的密度与五类非暴力犯罪之间的关联。 方法：对2009年明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯市的数据在社区层面进行汇总和分析。我们研究了酒类经营场所密度与五类非暴力犯罪之间的关联：故意破坏财物罪、妨害公共秩序罪、公共场所饮酒、醉酒驾车以及未成年人持有/饮用酒类。采用贝叶斯方法进行模型估计，考虑空间自相关并控制相关的社区人口统计学因素。对酒类经营场所的总体密度进行模型估计，然后分别对店外经营场所（如酒类专卖店和便利店）和店内经营场所（如酒吧和餐馆）进行估计。 结果：我们发现密度与每类犯罪之间都存在正相关。在公共场所饮酒方面的关联最强，在故意破坏财物方面的关联最弱。我们估计，社区内经营场所密度增加20%，各类犯罪将增加3.3% - 10.9%。店内和店外经营场所也有类似结果，尽管店外经营场所密度的关联强度较低。 结论：我们的研究结果表明，社区应考虑到社区内酒类经营场所数量增加可能导致非暴力犯罪增加的情况。（《酒精与药物研究杂志》，73卷，21 - 25页，2012年）