中国高学历人才的空间演化特征及驱动因素

Talents are the core driving force for promoting the innovative development of a region and also the key to the future urban competition. Based on the data from the Sixth National Population Census and the 1% National Population Sample Survey in 2015, using spatial statistical analyses such as the agglomeration degree and Gini coefficient as well as the negative binomial regression model method, a study on the spatial evolution characteristics and driving factors of highly educated talents in Chinese cities from 2010 to 2015 was carried out. The results show that: ① Talents present a highly concentrated and unbalanced spatial distribution pattern, but the trend of imbalance has been alleviated, and the distribution direction is "northeast - southwest". The spatial spillover effect of talent distribution is significant, and urban agglomerations are the highlands for talent agglomeration. ② Economic opportunities are the dominant force affecting the agglomeration of highly educated talents in China, among which salary is the core driving factor, and the development level and industrial structure of a region also have a significant impact. ③ After controlling the influence of economic opportunities, local quality variables with basic public services such as education and medical care, traffic accessibility and urban consumption facilities as the core play an important role in the spatial agglomeration process of highly educated talents. ④ There are significant differences in the talent driving factors between urban agglomerations and non-urban agglomerations: economic opportunities are the main driving forces for the talent agglomeration in both urban agglomerations and non-urban agglomerations; local quality variables such as education, consumption, transportation and natural environment have a more significant impact on the talent agglomeration in urban agglomerations. This study provides references for the formulation of urban and regional talent policies and regional development policies.

人才是推动地区创新发展的核心动力,也是未来城市竞争的关键。基于第六次全国人口普查和2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,运用集聚度、基尼系数等空间统计分析以及负二项回归模型方法,对2010—2015年中国城市高学历人才的空间演化特征及驱动因素展开研究。结果发现:①人才呈现出高度集中且不平衡的空间分布格局,但不平衡的趋势有所缓解,分布方向为“东北—西南”走向。人才分布的空间溢出效应显著,城市群是人才集聚的高地。 ②经济机会是影响中国高学历人才集聚的主导力量,其中工资是核心驱动因素,地区的发展水平、产业结构同样产生显著影响。③控制经济机会的影响后,以教育和医疗等基础公共服务、交通可达性和城市消费设施为核心的地方品质变量在高学历人才的空间集聚过程中发挥重要作用。④城市群与非城市群人才驱动因素存在显著差异:经济机会是城市群和非城市群人才集聚的主要驱动力;教育、消费、交通以及自然环境等地方品质变量对城市群人才集聚的影响更为显著。本研究为城市和区域人才政策和区域发展政策的制定提供借鉴与参考。