How much storage do we need in a fully electrified future? A critical review of the assumptions on which this question depends

‘How much storage do we need in a fully electrified future?’ On the face of it, this is a perfectly sensible technical question that needs to be answered if energy systems are to be decarbonised and if climate change goals are to be met. In this deliberately provocative paper, we argue that this question is itself part of the problem.In working towards this conclusion, we argue that assumptions surrounding i) spatial and temporal scale; ii) the equivalence of storage and demand side management; and iii) the nature of demand that underpin methods of calculating the need for energy storage are critical, yet often hidden or absent. We demonstrate the importance of such assumptions in practice today through the instrumental case of the electrification of the car fleet.Our analysis advances the argument that current approaches reproduce interpretations of normality that are, ironically, rooted in an era of fossil fuels. This has the perverse effect of reproducing present standards and modes of living and perpetuating ultimately unsustainable routines and expectations. We argue that the way out of this impasse is to invite more open discussion about the social worlds implicit in contemporary scenarios and forecasts. Rather than thinking about the types of storage needed to preserve the status quo, the challenge is to imagine the temporal, spatial and organisational qualities of energy systems, including systems of storage, that might be compatible with much lower carbon ways of life, and with very different patterns and levels of demand.

“在一个完全电气化的未来，我们需要多少储能？”从表面上看，这是一个非常合理的技术问题，如果要实现能源系统脱碳以及达到气候变化目标，就需要回答这个问题。在这篇有意引发争议的论文中，我们认为这个问题本身就是问题的一部分。 在论证这一结论的过程中，我们指出，围绕以下几点的假设至关重要，但却常常被隐藏或缺失：i) 时空尺度；ii) 储能和需求侧管理的等效性；iii) 支撑储能需求计算方法的需求性质。我们通过汽车车队电气化这一具有启发性的案例，展示了这些假设在当今实践中的重要性。 我们的分析进一步表明，当前的方法重现了对常态的解读，而具有讽刺意味的是，这种解读植根于化石燃料时代。这产生了一种反常的效果，即重现了当前的生活标准和模式，并使最终不可持续的惯例和期望得以延续。我们认为，摆脱这一困境的方法是就当代情景和预测中隐含的社会层面展开更开放的讨论。我们面临的挑战不是去思考为维持现状所需的储能类型，而是要设想能源系统（包括储能系统）在时间、空间和组织方面的特性，这些特性可能与碳排放量低得多的生活方式以及非常不同的需求模式和水平相适应。