风险与发展:进出口贸易的“双刃剑”效应研究

Preventing financial risks and promoting high-quality economic development are the new economic requirements for the current development of China's import and export trade. Through the matching of theoretical and practical issues, this paper uses the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregressive model (SV - TVP - SVAR) to observe the time-varying trajectory of the impact effect and studies the "double-edged sword" effects of import and export trade on risks and development in the short, medium and long terms. The research findings are as follows: On the one hand, import and export trade will have a significant impact on risks and development. Among them, the response effect of risks is inhibited in multiple periods, and the outbreak of the financial crisis is the inflection point of the effect turning. The positive impact of import trade on development is stronger than that of export. On the other hand, import and export trade has caused different degrees of domestic financial risk accumulation at four key points in time, but it will be diluted in the medium and long term, and the positive effect on high-quality economic development is continuous and relatively optimistic.

防范金融风险与推动经济高质量发展,是当前中国进出口贸易发展的经济新要求。本文通过理论与现实问题的匹配,运用时变参数结构向量自回归模型（SV-TVP-SVAR）,观测冲击效应的时变轨迹,研究进口与出口贸易对风险与发展的短期、中期与长期的"双刃剑"效应。研究发现:一方面,进出口贸易会对风险与发展产生明显的冲击,其中,风险的响应效果呈多期抑制,金融危机的爆发是效果转向的拐点,进口贸易对发展的正面影响强于出口;另一方面,四个关键时点下进出口贸易均造成了不同程度的国内金融风险累积,不过中长期内会被稀释,对经济高质量发展的积极作用持续且较为乐观。