Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity. Editor’s summary The 20th century saw rates of biodiversity loss high enough to qualify as a sixth mass extinction. Climate change now further threatens species and ecosystem services. Pereira et al. forecasted changes in both biodiversity loss and ecosystem services to 2050 and compared them with changes from 1900 to 2015, combining results from 13 different models. Across three shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios, rates of biodiversity decline from land-use change are expected to be lower than in the 20th century but much higher when climate change is considered. Provisioning ecosystem services (i.e., materials) are expected to increase, but regulating services (e.g., pollination) decline under most scenarios. Outcomes depend on the scenario, suggesting that policies can make a difference. —Bianca Lopez

基于广泛的模型比较，我们从土地利用和气候变化的历史重建以及未来情景中评估了生物多样性和生态系统服务的趋势。据一系列指标估计，在20世纪，全球生物多样性下降了2%到11%。供给性生态系统服务增加了几倍，调节性服务则适度下降。展望未来，可持续性政策有可能减缓因土地利用变化和对供给性服务的需求而导致的生物多样性丧失，同时减少或扭转调节性服务的下降趋势。然而，气候变化对生物多样性的负面影响似乎有增无减，特别是在高排放情景下。我们的评估指出了仍然存在的建模不确定性，但也有力地表明，需要重新作出政策努力以实现《生物多样性公约》的目标。 编者按：20世纪生物多样性丧失的速度之快足以被视为第六次大灭绝。气候变化现在进一步威胁着物种和生态系统服务。佩雷拉等人预测了到2050年生物多样性丧失和生态系统服务的变化，并将其与1900年到2015年的变化进行了比较，综合了13种不同模型的结果。在三种共享社会经济路径情景中，因土地利用变化导致的生物多样性下降速度预计将低于20世纪，但如果考虑到气候变化则会高得多。在大多数情景下，供给性生态系统服务（即物质）预计会增加，但调节性服务（如授粉）会下降。结果因情景而异，这表明政策能够产生影响。——比安卡·洛佩兹