气候变化背景下京津风沙源区人类活动对植被影响的量化分析

In the context of climate change, the quantitative research on the impact of human activities on vegetation has important practical significance for regional ecological management. Based on GIMMS NDVI3g data, meteorological data (temperature, precipitation) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), this study used correlation analysis and trend analysis to study the spatio-temporal changes of vegetation and its driving factors in different periods from 1982 to 2014 in the sandstorm source area of Beijing and Tianjin. Then, regression analysis and residual analysis were used to quantitatively study the impact of human activities on vegetation changes in different sub-areas in different periods. The results showed that from 1982 to 2014, the degradation of 77.1% of the vegetation in the sandstorm source area of Beijing and Tianjin was significantly improved, and the vegetation growth in 64.1% of the area showed an upward trend. The annual average NDVI showed a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. The study on vegetation dynamics in different periods showed that the vegetation increased in 74.5% of the area after the implementation of the sandstorm source control project in Beijing and Tianjin, and the most obvious was in the mountainous and hilly sub-area in northern Shanxi. Among the climate factors, precipitation had the strongest correlation with vegetation changes; human activities such as ecological projects played a positive role in most parts of the sandstorm source area of Beijing and Tianjin, especially in the mountainous and hilly sub-area in northern Shanxi, reaching 94.9%.

在气候变化背景下,将人类活动对植被的影响进行量化研究,对于区域生态管理具有重要的现实意义。本研究基于GIMMS NDVI3g数据、气象数据(气温、降水)和标准化降水蒸散指数( SPEI), 运用相关分析和趋势分析,研究京津风沙源区1982—2014年不同时期的植被时空变化及其驱动因子,再利用回归分析和残差分析定量研究了不同时期不同亚区人类活动对植被变化的影响。结果表明: 1982—2014年,京津风沙源区77.1%的植被退化状况得到明显改善,64.1%的地区植被生长呈上升趋势,年均NDVI呈现东南向西北递减的趋势。不同时期植被动态研究显示,74.5%的地区在京津风沙源治理工程实施后植被增加,最明显的是晋北山地丘陵亚区。在气候因子中,降水与植被变化的相关性最强;生态工程等人类活动在京津风沙源区的大部分地区起到了积极的作用,尤其是晋北山地丘陵亚区达到了94.9%。