Uncertainty and the Tyndall decarbonisation scenarios

The transition to a low carbon energy system must occur in the context of numerous uncertainties that occur at all scales, from the extent of the carbon reduction required through to the technologies and policies which will bring the reductions about. Against this background, the Tyndall Decarbonisation Scenarios project has sought to develop a new approach for the generation of energy scenarios, which focuses explicitly upon the transition to a low carbon energy system. Using a backcasting approach, the scenarios explore areas of uncertainty in relation to a low carbon energy system and how the low carbon transition may be brought about.

向低碳能源系统的转变必须在各种规模的众多不确定性背景下进行，从所需碳减排的程度到将实现减排的技术和政策。在此背景下，廷德尔脱碳情景项目试图开发一种生成能源情景的新方法，该方法明确聚焦于向低碳能源系统的转变。利用回溯法，这些情景探讨了与低碳能源系统相关的不确定性领域以及如何实现低碳转型。