Health and climate benefits of Electric Vehicle Deployment in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area

This study presents the results of an integrated model developed to evaluate the environmental and health impacts of Electric Vehicle (EV) deployment in a large metropolitan area. The model combines a high-resolution chemical transport model with an emission inventory established with detailed transportation and power plant information, as well as a framework to characterize and monetize the health impacts. Our study is set in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) in Canada with bounding scenarios for 25% and 100% EV penetration rates. Our results indicate that even with the worst-case assumptions for EV electricity supply (100% natural gas), vehicle electrification can deliver substantial health benefits in the GTHA, equivalent to reductions of about 50 and 260 premature deaths per year for 25% and 100% EV penetration, compared to the base case scenario. If EVs are charged with renewable energy sources only, then electrifying all passenger vehicles can prevent 330 premature deaths per year, which is equivalent to $3.8 Billion (2016$CAD) in social benefits. When the benefit of EV deployment is normalized per vehicle, it is higher than most incentives provided by the government, indicating that EV incentives can generate high social benefits. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

本研究展示了一个综合模型的结果，该模型旨在评估在一个大都市地区电动汽车（EV）部署对环境和健康的影响。该模型将高分辨率的化学传输模型与一个基于详细交通和发电厂信息建立的排放清单相结合，还包括一个对健康影响进行特征描述和货币化的框架。我们的研究以加拿大大多伦多和汉密尔顿地区（GTHA）为背景，设定了电动汽车渗透率为25%和100%的边界情景。我们的研究结果表明，即使在电动汽车电力供应的最坏假设情况（100%天然气）下，车辆电气化在GTHA地区也能带来显著的健康效益，与基准情景相比，在电动汽车渗透率为25%和100%时，每年分别相当于减少约50例和260例过早死亡。如果电动汽车仅使用可再生能源充电，那么所有乘用车电气化每年可避免330例过早死亡，这相当于38亿美元（2016年加元）的社会效益。当电动汽车部署的效益按每辆车进行归一化时，它高于政府提供的大多数激励措施，这表明电动汽车激励措施能够产生较高的社会效益。© 2020爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。