The origins of unpredictability in life outcome prediction tasks

Significance Scientists and decision-makers routinely make life outcome predictions: they use information from the past to predict what will happen to someone in the future. These predictions, whether made by human experts or algorithms, are often used to guide actions. Yet despite advances in artificial intelligence and predictive algorithms, life outcome predictions can be surprisingly inaccurate. We investigate the origins of this unpredictability through in-depth, qualitative interviews with 40 carefully selected families who are part of a multidecade research study. Their stories suggest origins of unpredictability that may apply broadly. Those who rely on predictions to inform high-stakes decisions about people should anticipate that life outcomes may be difficult to predict, even despite growing access to data and improved predictive algorithms.

意义 科学家和决策者经常进行生活结果预测：他们利用过去的信息来预测某人在未来会发生什么。这些预测，无论是由人类专家还是算法做出的，通常都被用于指导行动。然而，尽管人工智能和预测算法有所进步，但生活结果预测可能会惊人地不准确。我们通过对40个精心挑选的家庭进行深入的定性访谈来研究这种不可预测性的根源，这些家庭是一项长达数十年的研究的一部分。他们的故事揭示了可能具有广泛适用性的不可预测性的根源。那些依靠预测来为有关人员的高风险决策提供信息的人应该预料到，即使获取数据的途径不断增加且预测算法有所改进，生活结果可能仍然难以预测。