颠覆性技术遴选的指标体系与流程设计——基于扎根理论的多案例研究

In view of the insufficient systematic research on the evaluation criteria and review process of disruptive technologies, based on the research on the selection of disruptive technologies at home and abroad, the National Disruptive Technology Innovation Competition hosted by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China is selected as the main case, supplemented by six other cases such as other disruptive innovation-related competitions, new talent evaluation, new professional title assessment mechanisms, and the Nobel Prize review mechanism for cross-validation. Using the programmed grounded theory analysis, 111 concepts, 25 sub-categories, and 8 main categories are obtained. Accordingly, a review principle of quality first and then quantity is designed, and a selection process of preliminary preparation, initial review, re-review, and on-site evaluation is set up. Among them, in terms of qualitative judgment, the Delphi survey method is used to make a preliminary judgment on whether a project is disruptive relying on the intuition of experts; in terms of quantitative judgment, experts are invited to score from the four dimensions of technological disruption, industrial transformation, economic value, and social impact, and the comprehensive score of each project is finally calculated through weighted scoring, progressing layer by layer to complete the selection of disruptive technologies. To enhance the systematic nature of the selection methods for disruptive technologies and provide references for decision-making by governments at all levels and relevant departments.

针对目前颠覆性技术评价标准和评审流程系统性研究不足,基于国内外颠覆性技术遴选研究,选取我国科技部主办的全国颠覆性技术创新大赛为主案例,辅以其他颠覆性创新相关赛事、新型人才评价、新型职称评定机制及诺贝尔奖评审机制等6个案例交叉验证,运用程序化扎根理论分析得到111个概念、25个子范畴和8个主范畴,据此设计先质后量的评审原则,设置前期准备、初评、再评和现场评议的遴选流程。其中,在质的判断方面,运用德尔菲调查法,依靠专家直觉对项目是否具有颠覆性进行初步判断;在量的判断方面,邀请专家从技术颠覆、产业变革、经济价值、社会影响这4个维度进行打分,通过加权评分最终计算出各项目综合评分,层层递进以完成颠覆性技术的遴选。为增强颠覆性技术遴选方法的系统性以及各级政府和相关部门决策提供参考。