区域历史人口空间格局精细化重建:方法与实证

Taking Suzhou Prefecture in the mid - Qing Dynasty (1736 - 1820) as an example, this study explores the influencing mechanism of the spatial distribution of the population in historical periods, constructs a calculation method for the suitability of the historical population spatial distribution, and reconstructs the population dataset in a 1 km×1 km spatial grid for two typical time periods (1776 and 1820). The research results show that: ① In terms of quantity, in 1776, the total population of Suzhou Prefecture was 5.111 million, of which the urban population was 1.201 million and the rural population was 3.910 million. In 1820, the total population was 5.908 million, with 1.687 million in urban areas and 4.221 million in rural areas. The growth rate of the urban population was significantly faster than that of the rural population. ② In terms of the spatial pattern, from 1776 to 1820, the population was relatively concentrated in counties such as Wu County, Changzhou, and Yuanhe in the central part of Suzhou Prefecture, and relatively sparse in counties such as Zhaowen in the northeast, Xinyang, and Wujiang and Zhenze in the central - southern part. However, the differences between regions gradually decreased. Population growth was mainly concentrated in urban areas, and the population agglomeration characteristics of higher - level towns were more significant. ③ Through correlation and trend tests with local historical documents and the modern population pattern, the overall characteristics, distribution trends, and change features are consistent.

以清中期（1736—1820年）苏州府为例，探索历史时期人口空间分布的影响机制，构建历史人口空间分布适宜性计算方法，在 2个典型时段（1776年、1820年）重建 1 km×1 km空间格网下的人口数据集。研究结果表明：① 在数量上，1776年，苏州府人口总量为511.1万，其中城市人口 120.1万，农村人口 391.0万；1820年，总人口为590.8万，其中城市 168.7万，农村 422.1万；城市人口增长速率明显快于农村人口。② 空间格局上，1776—1820年，苏州府中部的吴县、长洲、元和等县人口较为集中，东北部昭文、新阳及中南部吴江、震泽等县较为稀疏，但区域间差异渐趋缩小；人口增长主要集中在城镇区域，较高等级城镇人口集聚特征更为显著。③ 通过与当地历史文献及现代人口格局进行相关性和趋势检验，总体特征、分布趋势和变化特点具有一致性。