Productivity and the decision to import and export: Theory and evidence

This paper develops an open economy model with heterogeneous final goods producers who simultaneously choose whether to export their output and whether to use imported intermediates. Using the theoretical model, we develop and estimate a structural empirical model that incorporates heterogeneity in productivity, transport costs, and other costs using Chilean plant-level data for a set of manufacturing industries. The estimated model is consistent with many key features of the data regarding productivity, exporting, and importing. We perform a variety of counterfactual experiments to assess quantitatively the positive and normative effects of barriers to trade in import and export markets. These experiments suggest that there are substantial gains in aggregate productivity and welfare due to trade. Furthermore, because of import and export complementarities, policies which inhibit the importation of foreign intermediates can have a large adverse effect on the exportation of final goods. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

本文构建了一个开放经济模型，其中最终产品生产商具有异质性，他们同时决定是否出口其产出以及是否使用进口中间产品。利用该理论模型，我们开发并估计了一个结构实证模型，该模型利用智利一组制造业的工厂层面数据，纳入了生产率、运输成本和其他成本方面的异质性。估计出的模型与有关生产率、出口和进口的数据的许多关键特征相符。我们进行了各种反事实实验，以定量评估进出口市场贸易壁垒的积极和规范性影响。这些实验表明，贸易使总生产率和福利有了大幅提高。此外，由于进出口的互补性，抑制外国中间产品进口的政策可能会对最终产品的出口产生巨大的不利影响。© 2012爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。