1.5℃温控目标下中国钢铁和水泥行业协同发展与可持续减排路径研究

The notable achievement of Katowice climate conference (COP24) set rulebook for the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement that aim to pursue efforts to limit climate change to 1.5 °C. A better understanding of sustainable climate solutions is particularly crucial because the COP24 sets out each country should provide their national action plans, including greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) mitigation and related adaptation measures. Several Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are increasingly used to assess future climate change and its projections vary widely, because most IAMs tends to focus on supply-side technology solutions and thereby miss linkages across sub-sectors, which leads to GHGs mitigation are often not very realistic and cannot be used to design specific policies. To solve this key scientific question and fulfill the decision-making demand, in this project, the transdisciplinary approach (including resource & material flow analysis, nexus approach, big data analysis and survey study) will employ to develop the China Steel and Cement Synergy Energy Model and integrate into the China Resource & Energy System Integrated Assessment Model. The model will be used to: a) assess the GHGs mitigation potential for Chinese steel and cement sectors under 1.5°C climate target; b) quantify Resource-Energy-Emission nexus and interactions across sectors; c) evaluate the efficiency and synergy of different policy instruments. The outputs of this project would provide important technical support for China to design mid- and long- term industrial sustainable development pathway for achieving GHGs reduction target.

卡托维兹气候变化大会进一步凸显制定行业中长期可持续发展路径以支撑气候变化谈判决策中面临的重大问题之一。已有大量综合评估模型从供给侧方面研究发展路径及其对能源环境经济的影响，但并未考虑需求侧各行业应对气候变化各措施的有效性和协同性，导致实现同一气候变化目标的政策措施具有很大差异。本研究旨在解决这一核心科学问题和决策问题，以我国钢铁与水泥行业为例，利用资源与物质流分析、关联关系分析、大数据分析和案例调研等方法和手段，构建钢铁与水泥行业协同能源模型并与中国特色能源资源系统综合评估模型进行集成，模拟1.5℃温升目标下中国钢铁与水泥行业温室气体减排潜力，揭示二者资源-能源-排放及各自与其他经济部门之间的关联关系，评估不同政策实施的协同性，弥补我国应对国际气候谈判方案研究的不足，为我国制定科学、系统的行业减排方案提供重要技术支持。

本研究通过构建中国特色的能源资源系统综合评估模型，模拟1.5℃温升目标下中国钢铁与水泥行业温室气体减排潜力，揭示二者资源-能源-排放及各自与其他经济部门之间的关联关系和协同效应。本研究成果主要包含以下三个方面:（1）通过构建的能源资源系统综合评估模型系统分析了钢铁与水泥行业未来减碳路径及其协同效应；（2）系统分析了钢铁与水泥的下游和上游行业未来的减碳路径及其环境健康协同效应；（3）针对重点地区（如京津冀等）分析了钢铁水泥及其关联行业的能源-排放-环境健康的综合性影响。研究结果对双碳政策和污染物防控政策具有一定意义。另外，通过该项目，共计发表SCI论文20余篇，申请人与北航经管学院老师合作联合指导1名博士毕业生，独立指导1名在读硕士，与该院2名博士合作发表SCI论文4篇，与清华地学系博士合作发表SCI论文2篇。

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