量化评估农业保险政策对规模化经营改革中的产量与规模化进程影响

Farm scale expansion has been the main focus in China’s agricultural policy reform in recent years, but achieves little. First, farm size -- productivity inverse relationship (IR) causes food security concerns which serve as a stumbling block in the reform. Secondly, as farm scale expanses, farmers’ demand for stabilizing liquidity has imposed higher requirement for insurance, however the poor performance of the industry is serving as the other stumbling block in the reform. Western reserchers believe risk can be a cause for the IR, therefore, if insurance industry can perform better, it solves the two problems by just one shut. However, current research cannot provide solid evidences for supporting this hypothsis, leaving government with bare hands in promoting insurance policy reform. This project proposes to theoretically analyze how insurance can mitigate the IR and benefit the farm scale reform, then empirically tests the causal effect of insurance on solving the IR issue and promoting farm scale reform, using large-scale farm level panal data. The details of how insurance policy is emplemented in grass-root level will be further explored for understanding how to better use policy intervention for helping farmers geting benefit from insurance. The project has two intentions. First, it attempts to show that insurance can compansate the farm scale reform by mitigating food security concerns. Second, it attempts to use insurance as an example to advocate that researchers who are interested in farm scale expansion reform should not only focus on the land property right issue, but also need to pay attention on other factors which can boost production efficiency.

规模化经营是近几年中国农业改革重点，但是推进缓慢。首先，由面积与单产逆关系问题引发的粮食安全担忧成为规模化绊脚石。其次，随着经营规模扩大，农户对资金链稳定的需求增加，但当前农业保险无法满足该需求成为规模化另一绊脚石。西方学界认为风险是逆关系成因之一，因此若能改善保险服务，就能一箭双雕解决规模化进程中两大障碍。但是，现有保险研究难以支撑以上观点，政府缺乏科学证据来改进保险政策。本课题将对农业保险如何减轻逆关系问题以及能否促进规模化进程进行理论模型推导、探究影响机理，然后用大规模农户面板数据对保险效果进行基于因果判定的定量评估从而判断当前保险是否取得理论上应该有的成效。再对保险政策进行分解以判断：如果保险没成效，问题出在哪，如果有成效，如何进一步改进。本研究一则证明保险能为规模化保驾护航，二则，希望以保险为例呼吁学界对规模化的研究不能仅关注土地制度，更要关注能提高生产效率的其他因素。

规模化经营是近几年中国农业改革重点，但是推进缓慢。首先，由面积与单产逆关系问题引发的粮食安全担忧成为规模化绊脚石。其次，随着经营规模扩大，农户对资金链稳定的需求增加，农业保险有望改善资金链稳定性。最后，农业保险每年耗费政府大量财政预算，但是成效如何有待研究。最终导致政府改进保险政策缺乏科学依据。本课题对农业保险如何影响单产和经营面积进行理论模型推导、探究影响机理，然后用大规模农户面板数据对保险效果进行基于因果判定的定量评估。.研究结果表明提供保险服务能够显著的提高农户的单产，从而促进农户增加经营规模，最终提高收入。具体而言，首先，对小麦和玉米政策性农业保险的研究表明，农业保险能够显著的增加农户的耕地面积，其中，对小麦经营规模的促进作用可以通过保险促进单产来解释，对玉米经营规模的促进作物主要通过保险解决流动性约束来解释。其次，农业保险市场发育有利于促进农业合作社的存续，其中，保险市场规模扩大能提供的正面促进作用小于服务品质提升能够带来的正面促进作用。再次，对牛羊牲畜保险的研究表明提供保险服务能够提高牧民收入20%以上，其中主要机制是通过降低牧民的风险暴露度，提高牧民采用利润率更高但是风险更大的生产决策。增收机制中提高牲畜轮转率，增加出栏量是主要渠道。最后，对橡胶价格保险的研究表明价格保险的促增收作用同样明显，主要通过提高胶农生产积极性，扩大割胶规模，提高亩均产胶量提高橡胶收入。.本课题还对农业保险推广存在的问题进行了量化评估。结果表明，首先，提高对农业保险保费和理赔额等基本信息的了解程度虽然能够显著提高农户的投保意愿，但是提高的幅度并没有增强农户对农业保险理赔机制了解程度的作用大。其次，农户对保费和保额的反映弹性有差异，同时，部分农产品保险存在过度补贴保费，但是保额提供不足的情况，因此，政府应该因地制宜的制定保险条款。最后，提供农业保险会激励农户生产，但是造成环境代价，值得政府注意。

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