农业贸易政策不确定性、价格传导与福利评估：理论、机制与中国经验

Under the background of international agricultural price fluctuation, the government applies trade policy to insulate the domestic and international agricultural market. Uncertain adjustment of agricultural trade policy not only fails to stabilize domestic agricultural prices, but also exacerbates the fluctuations of international agricultural prices. This project deeply studies the impact mechanism of agricultural trade policy uncertainty on the international price fluctuations of agricultural products, analyses the role of China’s agricultural trade policy adjustment in international price transmission of agricultural product, and accurately evaluates the overall welfare impact and the welfare distribution effect of agricultural trade policy adjustment. Firstly, following the approach of setting trade policy uncertainty, we construct the index of agricultural trade policy uncertainty. Secondly, we analyze the influence mechanism of the role of agricultural trade policy uncertainty in the fluctuations of international agricultural price. Thirdly, we clarify the influence mechanism of the adjustment of China’s agricultural trade policy in international price transmission of agricultural products. Finally, we construct the theoretical foundation for welfare evaluation, and evaluate the overall welfare effect and welfare distribution effect of China’s adjustment of agricultural trade policy. This research can provide a solid theoretical foundation and countermeasures to stabilize the domestic agricultural prices and the implementation of short-term adjustment of China’s agricultural trade policy.

在国际农产品价格波动背景下，政府借助贸易政策以隔离国内和国际农产品市场。农业贸易政策的不确定性调整不仅没有达到稳定国内农产品价格的目的，反而对国际农产品价格波动具有“推波助澜”的作用。本项目深入研究农业贸易政策不确定性对国际农产品价格波动的影响机制，剖析中国农业贸易政策调整在国际农产品价格传导中的作用，精准评估农业贸易政策调整的总体福利影响和福利分配效应。首先，基于贸易政策不确定性构建农业贸易政策不确定性指标；其次，探析农业贸易政策不确定对国际农产品价格波动的影响作用和机制；再次，明晰中国农业贸易政策调整在国际农产品价格传导中的影响机理；最后，构建福利评估理论基础，评估中国农业贸易政策调整的总体福利影响和福利分配效应。本课题研究成果能够为中国农产品价格稳定性和农业贸易政策短期调整可实施性提供扎实的理论基础和政策建议。