基于地震破坏范围及烈度空间衰减的大区域路网连通可靠性分析与应用

Damage caused by an Earthquake is a huge threat to people's life and properties. As the main way of human resources, equipment and material transportation, highway plays a key role in shortening the relief time. In order to make an active prevention before an earthquake instead of using a passive recovery after the earthquake and reduce losses during a disaster, it is an effective way to know how to evaluate and improve the reliability of highway network connectivity.This paper focuses on the important town node, and determines the analysis scope of the highway network reliability by applying the law of change of the intensity gradient so that it can reduce the network size and improve the pertinence analysis. And the paper is based on standards for seismic design and the behavior in service of the road unit. It studies the failure probability of the road unit under different intensity and establishes the reliability analysis of the network. A feasible method of reliability analysis for the external connection of the urban node and incidence is proposed by using the random number to simulate the connectivity state of each road unit and combining with the improved effective path criterion and the searching method. The concept of road unit critical degree is proposed according to the relative frequency of road unit which appears in the connection path during the simulation. Optimization method is used to propose road network optimization design method and road maintenance management optimization configuration method. Taking one region as an example, an empirical study is carried out to improve the seismic reliability of road network.

地震严重威胁人类生命和财产安全，公路作为人力、设备及物资运输主通道在救援中起着关键作用，因此如何评估和提高地震发生时灾区与外部路网连通可靠性，变震后被动补救为震前主动预防，是大幅降低灾害损失提高救援效率的有效途径。本课题以重要城镇节点为中心，根据地震烈度梯度变化规律，确定路网可靠性影响范围，从而降低网络规模并提高分析的针对性；结合道路单元抗震设计标准及使用状况，研究道路单元在不同烈度下破坏概率，建立与地震烈度衰减规律一致的可靠性分析网络；提出切实可行路网连通可靠性模拟方法，使节点间连通路径搜索问题等效为最短路搜索，该连通路径也为节点间最便捷路径，最终建立路网总体可靠性评价模型；根据模拟中道路单元在连通路径中出现的相对频率提出道路单元关键度的概念，并基于单元关键度，提出路网优化设计方法和道路维修管养资源优化配置方法。结合GIS进行程序开发，以某区域为例，进行成果应用和检验。

地震是世界上最具破坏力的自然灾害之一，严重威胁着人类的生命和财产安全，而道路网络作为人力、设备及物资运输的主通道在救援中起着关键作用。因此可靠的路网连通可靠性与合理的救援站位置是大幅降低灾害损失与提高救援效率的关键。本课题在研究分析了地震烈度衰减规律后，针对路网优化提出了以城市为中心的圆形地震烈度梯度衰减优化方法。结合汶川地震的资料，制定了道路单元可靠度标定方法。提出了路网连通可靠性模拟方法，并基于路网连通可靠性提出了路网优化模型。同时结合GIS技术，开发了可视化公路网抗震可靠性分析程序，为城市路网的优化提高了可操作性与实用性，实现研究成果的大范围推广和应用。本课题研究成果有效解决了城市路网抗震优化以及震后救援的问题，规避了路网可靠性计算中的NP难题，因此技术可行并且便于推广，最后以张家口市为例进行了实证应用。

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