合作对策的联盟形成机理和收益分配策略研究——以环境联合治理问题为例

For the increasingly prominent competition and cooperation phenomenon on economic management system, by researching on the interaction mechanism of multi-agent, the internal mechanism for coalition formation is explored, a scientific and effective negotiation mode is developed. Considering players' emotional factors, such as preferences, trust, fairness, and so on, the negotiation mode consistent with emotional cooperation games is built. By introducing Shapley stable matching theory, the formation process of the big coalition is researched, division and cooperative problems inside the coalition are analyzed, the cooperative mode of coalition formation in an uncertain environment is constructed, a fair payoff distribution rule and an evaluation method for the stability of a coalition structure are proposed. By analyzing the players' bargaining ability, patience and many other multiple factors, a method to determine the weight of weighted Shapley value is given, some properties and axiom characterization of the weighted Shapley value are researched. Combining with cooperation games with communication structure and fuzzy coalition, a graph game model with fuzzy coalition is established, a payoff distribution method and its axiom characterization of the model are discussed. Based on the multi-agent negotiation and coalition forming theory, we choose the united government problems of environment as the background to have an empirical analysis, the results indicate that our method can provide some theoretical basis and technical support for solving cost-sharing problems in united government of environment.

针对经济管理系统中日益凸显的竞争与合作现象，通过调研多主体间交互作用机理，揭示联盟形成的内在机制，探寻科学有效的谈判模式。综合考虑联盟成员的偏好、信任、公平等情感因素，寻求与带情感合作对策相一致的谈判模式。引入Shapley稳定匹配理论来演化大联盟的形成过程，分析联盟内部的分工合作问题。在不确定环境下研究联盟形成合作的方式，提出公平的联盟效益分配规则及联盟结构稳定性评价方法。通过对局中人的讨价还价能力、耐心等多重因素的度量，给出加权Shapley值的权重确定方法，研究加权Shapley值的性质及公理化特征。结合具有交流结构与模糊联盟的合作对策，建立模糊联盟图对策模型，讨论该模型的收益分配方法及其公理化特性。依托多主体谈判和联盟形成理论，选择环境治理背景进行应用和实证分析，为解决环境联合治理的成本分摊问题提供理论依据和技术支持。

本项目主要从联盟的形成机理、联盟的收益分配和环境联合治理应用研究三个方面展开。首先，为探究联盟最终形成的有效模式，主要建立并研究了一种结合联盟形成过程和联盟收益分配的匹配值理论。其次，对于特定的联盟形成方式和联盟收益形式，构建与之匹配的合作对策模型，并展开收益分配理论研究。主要研究了基于BUM函数、H-差、广义H-差的广义Shapley值，讨论了区间支付合作对策的核心、F-核心、S-核心等解及性质，研究了合作对策的估值解及性质，还研究了具有学习效应的排队对策、具有权限结构的合作对策和模糊联盟图对策等。最后，系统分析了非可加测度论与多准则决策理论，并基于对策理论及决策方法对环境治理等应用领域做了研究。本项目研究成果完善了合作对策的收益分配理论和联盟形成理论，特别是不确定环境以及联盟形成具有限制的合作对策理论体系，为解决实际问题提供理论依据。在本项目的支持下，项目组成员在国际、国内核心期刊上发表学术论文34篇，其中被SCI收录17篇，被EI收录19篇，同时出版专著1部。培养出(已毕业)与对策论研究方向有关的博士5名，硕士10名，现在读博士研究生2名。总之，该项目进展顺利，达到了预期的效果。

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