云南省镇雄县赵家沟灾难性高速远程滑坡的成因研究

The fatal Zhaojiagou landslide suddenly occurred in a dry season in the early morning of January 11, 2013 in Zhenxiong County, Yunnan Province, southwestern China. The failed colluvium slope had an overall dip angle 20 and occupied a volume 2.1×10^5 m^3 of about 16 m thick, 110 m long and 100 m wide. The soil and rock mixture debris was rapidly deposited over the front gentle slope area of 650 m long and 250 m wide. The overall slope angle from the back scarp crest to the debris deposition toe was about 19 . The Zhaojiagou village of 16 houses was located over a plane area of 10,000 m^2 at 500 m to 650 m horizontal distances to the failed slope toe. A large amount of the debris rapidly arrived and instantly buried 14 village houses with 46 people, 59 pigs and 5 cattle. The thickness of the debris deposition over the village was up to 13 m thick. This investigator has conducted a preliminary investigation about the landslide and found its cause possibly due to a sudden eruption of highly pressurized natural gas accumulated and stored in the deep ground of the failed slope. A literature review has shown that this gas cause of fatal landslides was not yet reported in open literature available in English and Chinese. Therefore, this project aims to thoroughly investigate the landslide and to verify this gas cause. Its tasks include 1) detailed ground investigation including drillholes and trial pits and trenches at the landslide site, 2) in-situ and laboratory tests for the physical and mechanical properties of the colluvium soil and rock mixtures and the bedrocks, 3) field monitoring of rainfall and groundwater, and laboratory testing of the water chemical properties, 4) field monitoring and testing of natural gas in the slope ground, and laboratory testing of the natural gas chemistry, 5) theoretical analysis and numerical simulation for the occurrence and process of the landslide with conventional cause models, 6) development of a new physical and mechanical model associated with the new cause of highly pressurized natural gas expansion force and energy, 7) theoretical and numerical simulation for the occurrence and process of the landslide with the new cause model, and 8) diagnosis of the causes of the landslide. The findings would be useful to the prevention, mitigation and prediction of landslide hazards in the region and around the world.

高速远程滑坡因其突发、剧烈、迅速及远程, 常成为灾难性滑坡。多年来，世界各地滑坡专家们一直探索和试图回答一个关键问题：为什么不少大型滑坡的水平运移距离，在无水或少水条件下，能够远远大于经典物理、力学和岩土力学理论和经验的预期值？他们专注土石滑动阻力，试图但囿于找出能够使得它减小的某种普遍因素。本项目从三个方面来论证一种新的、地下高压天然气体膨胀能主动地制造高速远程滑坡的成因。第一，收集赵家沟滑坡现象和勘测现场工程地质条件，为传统或新滑坡成因理论的研究建立数据库。第二，初步研究表明，2013年1月11日在云南镇雄赵家沟发生的灾难性高速远程滑坡是最具代表意义的实证事例。对它进行及时深入的研究，可找到大量事实和确凿证据，证明这个新成因说的存在。第三，建立地下高压天然气滑坡成因的理论体系，来定量分析和合理解释赵家沟滑坡的各种事实和证据及之间关联。本项目可为地质灾害防治提供新的科学依据、理论和方法。

本项目调查和研究了包括2013 年云南镇雄赵家沟在内的高速远程山体滑坡的特征和成因。因突发、剧烈、体巨、迅速和远程，它们常常成为灾难性滑坡，更可成为中国每年十大自然灾害事件。自1903年Frank滑坡灾难以来，世界滑坡专家们一直在研究高速远程山体滑坡，提出了多种多样的成因与机理和防治方法。但是，类似滑坡灾难还是不断发生。并且，在面对不少滑坡灾难时，专家们经常表示意想不到或给出不完备解释。本项目研究了这些问题，从多个方面论证了一种新的、人们尚未认识和防治的高速远程滑坡成因模式：地下高压气体主动地制造坚实稳定山体发生高速远程滑坡。以2013 年云南镇雄赵家沟等地高速远程滑坡事件为基础，本项目获得了大量事实和数据，论证了这个新成因假说的存在合理性。建立了地下高压气体制造稳定山坡快速失稳、失稳岩土体获得极高初始加速度、在极端（几微秒到几秒）时间内获得高速度、和行成高速远程滑坡事件的成因与机理理论和方法。定量地回答了大型稳定山坡从稳定突变不稳定、从静态快速加速、在无水或少水条件下发生、难以或不能预测预报、事后难以解释等重要问题。本项目可为重大地质灾害防治提供新的科学观点、理论和方法。

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