中国制造业生产率分析：1998-2013

The development of China's manufacturing sector since the late 1970's is phenomenal. The key factors and mechanisms propelling the process from the late 1970's to the onset of the financial crisis in 2008 are well studied in the literature. However, not much is known about what happened and how afterwards at the micro level. A few tentative studies, mostly using macro data but different methods, came to the similar conclusion that there has been a substantial drop in the growth of productivity - a measure of efficiency - after the financial crisis. To keep improving efficiency is a key challenge for the transition of China's manufacturing sector from a mere massive one to a strong one. The purpose of this research project is to first establish robust estimates of the performance of China's manufacturing sector over the whole period from 1998 to 2013 so to provide a fair evaluation of the relative performance after 2008. We will then investigate the crucial margins where substantial changes have taken place. Combined with economic theories on firm behavior and industry equilibrium, the observed changes in behavior pattern are reflections of changes in factors that shape individual firms incentive structure. Through this process of analysis, we hope to help identify the keystone elements of the ecosystem of China's manufacturing sector and contribute to effective policies for China's industrial upgrading.

改革开放以来，中国的制造业取得了瞩目发展。现有文献对于70年代末期至2007年金融危机发生之前的成功经验已比较系统的研究，学界也达成了相当程度的共识。相比而言，对于2008年之后的研究，尤其是微观机制层面的研究，则刚刚起步。使用不同方法和数据，一些初步研究的结果共同显示，金融危机之后中国制造业生产率增长绩效显著下滑。这是中国实现从制造大国向制造强国转变过程中面临的一个重要挑战。.本项目将在近一步完善微观数据的基础上，采用传统的控制函数方法和文献中最新的识别策略来估计制造业生产技术参数，估算中国制造业1998年至2013年之间的绩效及其变化特征。在得到2008年之后生产率变化的稳健估计的基础上，我们将进一步探索发生显著变化的维度（时间、边际、产业特征包括技术特性，等）并分析原因，以增进对中国制造业发展机制的理解，帮助寻求在新常态下解放发展瓶颈和驱动产业进步的有效途径。