在役海底油气输送管道风险评估与管理研究

Submarine oil and gas pipeline serious leakage accidents are influenced by many complex factors , which are closely related to seabed geological structure, pipeline strength, corrosion, manufacture crack, marine transportation, and thus have characteristics of complexity, randomness, rapid diffusion, derivatives and time correlation. To evaluate the risk of is a process of which is influenced by numerous factors, interaction and dynamic process, and has the characteristics of uncertainty, complexity, dynamic and effectiveness. According to these characteristics from the pipeline failure factors and failure model, we focus on the research of complex marine environment of oil and gas pipeline risk assessment issues related to science technology. The concrete content is: (1) to study failure probability models failure mode, failure consequence of oil and gas submarine pipeline and how to calculate model and related problems; (2) Based on the research object which occur oil and gas pipelines leakage and fracture in seabed, we mainly study the short and long term hazard and consequences (such as, oil spill diffusion, gas leakage of pool fire, jet fire, thermal radiation and explosion hazard), including the ecological loss, spilled oil disposal costs, economic losses and casualties of the modeling calculation of scientific problems; (3) development an oil and gas submarine pipeline risk assessment system according to ocean environment to provide a scientific basis for risk management and decision of marine pipelines in China.

海底油气输送管道泄漏重特大事故受多种因素的影响，与海底地质结构、管道强度、腐蚀、制造裂纹、海洋交通等密切相关，具有复杂性、随机性、快扩散性、衍生性及与时间相关性等特性。对其进行风险评估是一个受多因素影响、相互交互的动态过程，具有不确定性、复杂性、动态性和实效性等特点。针对这些特点从管道失效因素和失效模型入手，重点研究复杂海洋环境下油气输送管道风险评估与管理技术的有关科学问题。具体内容为：(1)海底管道的油气输送管线的失效概率模型、失效模式、失效后果计算模型以及相关问题的研究；(2)以海底油气管线发生大泄漏和断裂为研究对象，研究其急剧危害和长期危害造成的后果(溢油泄漏扩散、天然气泄漏池火、喷射火、热辐射和爆炸等造成的危害)，包括生态损失、溢油处理费用、经济损失和人员伤亡的建模计算等科学问题；(3)开发适合我国海洋环境的海底油气输送管线风险评估系统，为我国海洋管道风险管理与决策提供科学依据。

本项目以研究海底管道风险评估中与时间有关的失效概率模型、失效模式、泄漏率计算模型和失效后果计算模型为目标，探索了面向我国海底油气输送管道定量风险评估的基本理论、基本方法和关键技术。围绕总体目标，在海底管道风险影响因素辨识研究方面，提出了基于VIV预测模型及影响因素研究方法；在海底管道腐蚀深度、腐蚀速率预测方面，提出了最优加权组合预测模型、不同初始条件的UGM(1,1)预测模型、基于参数优化GM-Markov模型、基于改进随机森林模型以及基于混合算法的腐蚀预测模型；在海底管道剩余强度、剩余寿命和可靠性研究方面，提出了基于RS-PSO-ELM的腐蚀管道失效压力预测模型、基于Lasso-PSO-BP神经网络的失效压力预测模型、基于FOA-GRNN的剩余强度预测模型、基于TV-HSMM的海底管道寿命预测模型、考虑不完全维修的海底管道剩余寿命预测模型以及基于维纳退化过程的海底腐蚀管道可靠性分析模型；在泄漏、后果研究方面，提出了基于耦合协调模型、大孔模型和基于EMICA-KRR模型的研究方法；在海底管道维修方案、维修策略研究方面，提出了一种加速应力退化试验下基于Gamma过程剩余寿命预测的维修策略建模方法；在海底管道风险评估方面，提出了基于GMM-PNN模型的海底油气管道风险等级评价模型；课题为面向我国海底管道风险评估中的失效建模、海底管道剩余强度及可靠性研究、海底油气输送管道失效模式和后果建模以及海底油气输送管道风险评估体系等关键问题提供新的解决思路和方案，其研究成果将促进我国海底油气输送管道风险评估由定性评估向定量评估的转化在理论和应用研究方面的发展，也为其他领域的灾害定量评估提供借鉴。

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