基于遥感/GIS集成手段的城市化区域土地利用碳排放及其社会经济驱动机制研究：以上海市为例

Taking climatic change into account, this research focuses on land use conversion and associated carbon emission as well as the underlying socioeconomic driving mechanism during China’s recent urbanization process. Greater Shanghai lends itself well in this research due to its leading role among domestic megacities. Based on literature review analysis and field survey, sampling methods for collecting energy consumption and potential carbon emission for specific industries and detailed land use/ land cover types will be developed. Thereafter, macro scaleindices such as social level, economic development, sector energy consumption, and carbon emission will be collected. These data sets will be used to account terrestrial carbon balance and anthropogenic carbon emission, which will be further used to develop carbon inventory and conceptual model for quantifying carbon emission in Shanghai. In the next steps, an integrated approach combining remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) will be employed to establish long time series land use database. Detailed land use types and their associated carbon emission potential will be combined for recognize their roles in carbon sink or source. Then, a comprehensive model coupled socioeconomic driving forces and land use planning scenarios will be developed for accurate estimation and visualization of sptiotemporal pattern of land development and associated carbon emission, including direct and indirect carbon emission of land use. This research will produce practicable results for extending and enhancing the existing assessment system and modeling methodology of land use and associated carbon emission. Further, the new findings of this research will provide systematic datasets and innovative methodology for the other researches, decision-makers, and governmental agencies. They are also beneficial to make low-carbon oriented policy for optimal land use and sustainable land development management, which will achieve the goal of curtailing carbon emission across local, regional, and national levels.

本课题聚焦于全球气候变化背景下我国快速城市化进程中土地利用方式转变对区域碳排放影响及其社会经济驱动机制的重要问题。以上海市为研究对象，通过典型区域具体分行业的土地利用及能耗调查，结合宏观层面的区域社会经济、能源需求等参数，核算陆地生态系统碳收支和人为源碳排放，形成土地利用的综合碳排放清单与碳排放计量框架模型；集成遥感解译与GIS空间分析方法，建立长时间序列土地利用/覆盖特征数据库，依据各项用地的特征与潜在碳排放贡献量，对区域土地利用的碳效应进行归属识别，构建耦合社会经济与土地利用规划的碳排放效应综合评估模型；揭示土地利用变化行为的直接和间接碳排放效应，分析土地利用方式转变对区域碳排放影响的社会经济驱动机制。研究成果可拓展和改进现有的土地利用碳排放评估体系和模型模拟方法，探索“低碳型”的土地利用格局与调控监管政策以实现碳减排目标，为国家气候政策和区域可持续发展管理提供数据、方法和决策支持。

本项目主要研究全球气候变化背景下我国快速城市化进程中土地利用方式转变对区域碳排放影响及其社会经济驱动机制的重要问题。以上海市为考察对象，通过典型区域的土地利用及能耗调查，结合宏观层面的区域社会经济、能源需求等参数，核算碳收支和人为源碳排放，形成土地利用的综合碳排放清单与碳排放计量框架模型；结合空间分析和定量模型分析方法，建立长时间序列土地利用/覆盖特征数据库，依据各项用地的特征与潜在碳排放贡献量，对区域土地利用的碳效应进行归属识别，构建耦合社会经济与土地利用规划的碳排放效应综合评估模型；揭示土地利用变化行为的直接和间接碳排放效应，分析土地利用方式转变对区域碳排放影响的社会经济驱动机制，实现“低碳型”城市土地利用的战略目标。研究成果可拓展和改进现有的土地利用碳排放评估体系和模型模拟方法，探索“低碳型”的土地利用格局与调控监管政策以实现碳减排目标，为国家气候政策和区域可持续发展管理提供数据、方法和决策支持。本课题共发表学术论文10篇，参加相关学术会议交流25人次，培养5名环境科学与工程专业硕士毕业研究生。

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