乡村振兴期土地流转诱导农地利用转变的环境风险及其绿色利用引导

In order to ensure the agricultural output in China, the agricultural chemical input in farmland should be kept stable or increased. But the agricultural input should also be decreased since China has promoted green agricultural production. Therefore China in which farmland transfer is promoted to realize agricultural modernization is faced with a dilemma in controlling the agricultural chemical input in rural revitalization. For the sake of green farmland use in the process of farmland transfer, a general framework for analyzing sustainability of social-ecological systems is selected as a theoretical basis in study. The surveys in Hangjiahu Plain and Xiaoshao Plain in Zhejiang and Jianghan Plain in Hubei are conducted to collect the data for analysis. And the methods including source intensity estimation, USES-LCA model, lottery choice method, estimation of average treatment effect in treated and multi-agent modeling technique are adopted in this study. Firstly, the source and intensity of environmental risk of farmland use are analyzed. Secondly, the effect of farmland transfer behavior on environmental risk is assessed. Thirdly, the relationships between farmland transfer and environmental risk that are affected by risk preferences of farmland users and the interaction between risk preferences and farmland use transition under rural revitalization are revealed. Fourthly, collective-choice rules and operational rules for farmland use with low environmental risk are established. The specific research contents are to (1) quantify the environmental risk of farmland use; (2) assess the risk preferences of farmland users; (3) analyze the average treatment effect in treated of farmland transfer action on environmental risk; (4) simulate the dynamics of environmental risk that is caused by farmland transfer-induced farmland use transition under rural revitalization and (4) discuss guidance policies for green farmland use in farmland transfer.

乡村振兴期的中国，在推动土地流转发展现代农业中，面临着刺激农用化学品投入以确保农业产出和抑制农用化学品投入以促进绿色生产的两难选择。为引导土地流转促进农地绿色利用，本项目以“社会-生态系统可持续性分析框架”为理论依据，基于浙江杭嘉湖平原与萧绍平原、湖北江汉平原的调查，借助源强估算法、USES-LCA法、彩票选择实验法、平均处理效应分析与多智能体技术等研究手段，判断农地利用环境风险来源及强度，弄清单一农地转入行为对环境风险的影响，揭示乡村振兴期农地经营主体风险偏好及其与农地利用转变耦合作用下土地流转与环境风险之间的内在关系，提炼促进低环境风险农地利用的集体选择规则和操作规则。主要研究内容包括：（1）农地利用环境风险测度；（2）农地经营主体风险偏好识别；（3）是否发生土地流转对环境风险影响分析；（4）乡村振兴期土地流转诱导农地利用转变的环境风险模拟；（5）土地流转中农地绿色利用引导政策设计。

乡村振兴期的中国，在推动土地流转发展现代农业中，面临着刺激农用化学品投入以确保农业产出和抑制农用化学品投入以促进绿色生产的两难选择。但是土地流转-农地利用转变-环境风险之间的关系却不容易识别。因此本研究基于实证区的调查与数据，（1）运用层次分析法、德尔菲法、熵权法、多元回归模型、冗余分析模型分析农村转型对农地利用转变（农地利用集约度变化）的影响。研究发现区域城镇化、农业产业化、农业商品化对农地利用投入强度、产出强度产生差别化作用关系。（2）运用地理探测器，探测农地流转空间差异依赖因子。研究发现农地流转空间差异依赖因子的决定力中，自然条件因子决定力普遍低于城镇化因子，且对农地流转空间差异产生影响的排名较前的依赖指标与农地流转比重、非农户流转比重及非粮化流转比重的空间分布的一致性较高。（3）运用状态空间模型和中介效应分析工具，基于“农地流转-污染性投入”构建农地利用对健康的影响分析框架，分析土地流转对环境健康风险影响。研究发现农用地利用影响健康的过程中，农地流转直接效应和污染性投入强度的中介效应并存。（4）运用多重中介变量检验模型，构建起城镇化-农地流转-农地利用碳排放分析框架，分析土地流转对环境中的碳排放影响。研究发现人口城镇化、就业城镇化、土地城镇化分别通过农地流转规模、农地流转去向、流转耕地用途对农地利用碳排放产生影响。（5）运用基于可信度理论的冲突分析模型，评估与农地相关的冲突的来源、参与者、时间、强度和结果。该研究有助于观察转型期对土地利用的影响，有助于典型地区引导土地流转实现土地资源绿色利用。

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