农民工迁移持续期与分层城镇化路径研究

Based on the rational hypothesis and realistic background, the project will research the facters of migration duration and hierarchical urbanization of peasant workers.Founded on theory framework and empirical perspective, it puts forward the path of hierarchical urbanization. In the theory analysis, human capital accumulation model on rural-urban migration of rural labors and migration duration model is introduced to the hierarchical urbanization framework of Chinese rural labors. Because of the fundamental difference in the transfer efficiency of urban human capital between urban-to-rural migration and urban-to-city migration, a hierarchical urbanization model is to build to conclude the two urbanization decision possibilities. Urbanization decision of medium and small towns has practical significance to the research of hierarchical urbanization. Substantial evidences analysis includes following three aspects: First, using proportional hazard model analyzes the factors that influence the duration period of migrant workers in urban cities. Second，using multi-logistic model analyzes the pulling and pushing forces that influence the hierarchical urbanization decision of farmer workers. Third, using panel data model analyzes the factors that influence scale of farmer peasants in cities with different hierarchy.The exemplified result will prove the hypothesis of pulling and pushing factors of towns and counties, which is the foundation to forecast the pattern of hierarchical urbanization in future China. The ultimate objective of the research is to advance the theoretical base and practical route to the implementation of orderly hierarchical urbanization for rural-to-urban migrant workers.

基于理性假设和现实背景研究农民工迁移持续期、分层城镇化决策行为及其影响因素，在理论框架和实证分析基础上探讨分层城镇化的路径。理论分析中，将农村劳动力城市化的人力资本积累理论与迁移持续期模型引入到农民工分层城镇化的模型框架中。由于农民工的城市人力资本在返乡务农和城镇转移两种不同迁移方式上的利用效率的根本性差异，加入中小城镇决策的分层城镇化研究将更具现实意义。实证分析包括三部分，运用比例风险模型对影响农民工城镇迁移的持续时间进行回归分析，运用多元logistic模型对农民工的分层城镇化决策之影响因素进行分析，运用面板数据模型对影响不同层级城镇的农民工迁入规模的因素进行分析。实证分析结果将验证关于农民工实现城镇化的城乡推拉因素假设，进而预测中国城镇化分层稳态规模。研究的最终目标是为农民工分层有序城镇化的实现提供理论依据和现实路径。

基于理性假设和现实约束研究农民工在各层级城镇的迁移持续期并提出分层城镇化的路径。理论分析中，分别假设收入最大化和效用最大化，借鉴人力资本积累理论与国际迁移持续期模型，构建农民工分层城镇化决策与最优迁移持续期理论模型，以分析农民工多元城镇化决策及最优迁移持续期。.村级整群抽样和大城市便利抽样相结合开展调研，发现农民工城镇化意愿分层特征明显，约75%具城镇化意愿，务工地城镇化和老家城镇化意愿比例相当。家庭收入与务工地收入作为两种方向的拉力，共同影响农民工城镇化意愿。年龄、收入、社会归属感对农民工城镇化定居层次具有重要影响。.农民工在流入地暂时性迁移持续期平均为37个月。运用cox模型和威布尔模型对务工经历时间进行分析，发现不同收入层次的农民工，收入的影响方向不同。不同城镇化定居意愿、来源区域的农民工，迁移持续期表现不同。个人特征、工作特征、流出地与流入特征影响农民工的迁移持续时间。.农民工回流前后职业特征具有较强的相关性，外出务工期间人力资本积累在回流期得以体现。但是，部分农民工回流状态不稳定，有30%以上想要再次外出。东部的回流农民工稳定性高于全国水平，人力资本积累转化效果（回流前后收入差距）是农民工再回流意愿的主要决定因素。.从农村劳动力城镇化实现的成本、能力与实现障碍三个层面比较农民工不同层级城镇化的成本与能力，发现农民工在老家城镇化的能力高于在务工城市。农民工城镇化预期低于意愿，接近40%的有城市定居意愿无法实现。利用统计数据对微观数据进行匹配，构建流入地-流出地消费水平差变量，发现城镇化成本与收入能力对意愿预期偏差的影响显著。.研究建议：一是保障外出就业农民工的参保权利，提升公共服务覆盖面；二是促进县镇经济发展、创造就业机会并改善县镇福利；三是提升人力资本积累效率，提高回流农民工就业创业效果；四是城镇化路径多元化，提升质量。引导农村劳动力在当地集镇和县城就业安家，降低城镇化门槛。

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