城市新区征收拆迁的优化配置及冲突治理机制研究：多智能体遗传算法的模拟仿真视角

The conflict of land requisition has become the most important problem in China. The key point of the conflict management of land requisition is how to construct a policy model based on the land requisition allocation by breaking through the limitation of traditional research systems, perspectives and methods. This research proposes model that integrating a MAS that simulates the behaviors of land-requisition stakeholders with regard to their choice of specific locations, with a GA that simultaneously evaluates and optimizes land-requisition patterns to meet various regional development objectives. The District of eastern coastal and west regions, China, making it our choice of study area to test the model. We exploited a dynamic simulation system in Repast of land value, environment and land utilization, and to focus on the model of the optimization of land-requisition allocation. Based on the dynamic simulation results, we structured the national conflict of land-requisition mechanisms, considering the optimization of land-requisition allocation under government regulation into account. The process and mechanism of "policy drive -farm household behavior optimiae-conflict reduce" will be explored. Then combined with social and economic development and policy innovation, the operational design patterns and the conflict long-acting dynamic management mechanism based on the collaboration of government and farm households will be established and refined.

征收拆迁冲突引发的社会矛盾成为影响农村社会稳定和发展的重要问题，冲突治理形势严峻。突破传统的研究体系、视角及方法的局限，探求以征收拆迁的优化配置为核心的冲突治理机制势在必行。本项目申请拟以东部、中西部调研数据为基础，在地理空间分布规则的二维格网上，以征收拆迁时空配置规律的分析为支撑，揭示冲突的形成机制。突破传统的建模方式，耦合多智能体系统（MAS）建模框架与遗传算法（GA）计算规则，探讨多主体之间及其与外部环境的交互和反馈，构建基于多主体行为响应的征收拆迁优化配置模型。基于Repast平台的多情景仿真实验，探讨“政策驱动——冲突者行为优化——冲突弱化”之间的内在联系和响应机制，提炼基于征收拆迁优化配置的政策设计模式及冲突者意愿和政府协同治理的城市新区征收拆迁冲突的长效动态治理机制。

城市蔓延背景下城市新区征收拆迁冲突成为当代社会稳定与发展所要解决的重要问题。本研究以征收拆迁优化配置为出发点，以征收拆迁冲突的时空演化数据库为关键数据支撑，挖掘政府、开发商、被拆迁者对征收拆迁这一事件的行为响应特征，构建公共资源配置的空间正义——多主体需求偏好——冲突行为响应的框架，探究征收拆迁冲突的发生机理；并在地理空间分布规则的二维格网上，耦合多智能体系统构建了基于多主体行为响应的征收拆迁优化配置模型，提出了基于征收拆迁优化配置的冲突治理政策。研究结果得到，（1）征收拆迁冲突的时空演化规律差异显著，表现出冲突事件递增与集聚的发展规律。（2）不同需求层级下被拆迁者对冲突的响应各为不同，公共资源配置的空间正义性对征收拆迁冲突的影响显著。（3）基于AGENT模型成功模拟了微观多主体不同需求和偏好驱动下减少冲突事件发生的征收拆迁空间布局优化配置。（4）在预防或化解城市拆迁冲突中需要考虑被拆迁者的多层利益诉求，分层制定冲突治理政策实现 “人的城镇化”。本研究有助于寻找城市新区建设中征收拆迁冲突的预防或化解策略，推动以人为本的城镇化建设，为实现社会的可持续发展起到积极的作用。

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