气候变化对两种中国灵长类动物的影响及其栖息地恢复生态研究

Understanding the consequences of climate change for primates is likely the most important question that primate conservation scientists must address in the next decade, however, our abilities to predict primate responses to climate change is currently very poor. This stems both from the lack of comparable long-term studies from around with world and from the difficulty of establishing cause and effect relationship between climate change and the population dynamics of long-lived primate species. However, with almost ¾ of China’s primate species having populations that are less than 3000 individuals and with these species occurring in mountainous regions to the south where the climate is getting significantly wetter and hotter, research into the effects of climate change on China’s primates and their habitat is needed. Rather than seeking to demonstrate a cause and effect relationship between climate change and primate population dynamics, we wish to build a body of evidence that climate change is associated with changing ecological states, Primates will show behavioral and dietary flexibility and if one food item is in low supply, they will eat something else, and we can only speculate that this will have negative impacts on the population. This research is forging a team of collaborators to provide the scientific information to predict the impact of climate change on two primate populations：one to the far north of where primates are found in China – Golden snub-nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) of the Qinling Mountains – and one to the far south - Western black crested gibbon (Nomascus concolor) of Mt. Wuliang. At each site in China, we will build on existing long-term data and collect new climate data (focusing on extreme weather events), behavioural data on the primate (diet, range use, activity), ecological data (food plant phenology and changing plant community structure), nutritional data, and demographic data. We will compare the same type of data we collected in Uganda in Africa for several decades for the purpose of exploring the behavioral adaptation strategies of the primate living in different habitats, and establishing the mode of "climate-habitat vegetation-animal populations" and answering the question of how global climate change affects primates survival, provide guidance for the study of population recovery and stability.

理解气候变化对灵长类带来的影响可能是灵长类学家在下一个十年必须要解决的问题。由于国际间大尺度对比研究的缺乏，以及建立气候变化与灵长类种群动态间因果关系的困难，导致我们预测灵长类应对气候变化的本领较薄弱。中国境内3/4的灵长类的种群数量低于3000，其栖息的山地和低纬度区域正变得更加潮湿和闷热。本项目旨在证实气候变化与生态现象之间的证据，证明气候变化会导致食物替代效应发生，进而影响灵长类种群的生存。本研究选择中国南北分布的两种灵长类代表秦岭川金丝猴和无量山西黑冠长臂猿作为研究对象。以这两个研究地点现有的长期数据为基础，并收集气候、行为、生态、食物营养成分以及种群数量的最新数据，同时，对比申请人在非洲乌干达收集到的数十年的同类型数据研究结果，探究动物的行为适应策略，确立中国这两种珍稀濒危灵长类的“气候-植被-动物种群”间的作用模式，回答全球气候变化对灵长类生存带来的影响。

气候变化对动物的影响表现在多个维度，除了降雨、温度和极端气候，气候变化引起的物候和森林植被结构变化会直接或者间接影响动物的取食、繁殖和种群稳定。因此这种生物因子和非生物因子的双重作用对于森林生活的灵长类来说是一个巨大的生存挑战，本项目以两种中国分布的灵长类-秦岭川金丝猴和无量山西黑冠长臂猿为研究对象，系统分析了其栖息地过去20年的气候数据，以及栖息地植被结构、种群数量规模、分布范围、栖息地面积和觅食策略的变化情况，研究结果发现，秦岭地区的降水和温度在过去60年呈现上升趋势，秦岭金丝猴的种群规模、分布范围、栖息地面积在过去20年，均呈现增长趋势。气候变化使得植被的物候发生变化（开始期提前，结束期推后），进而使得川金丝猴不同季节的食谱组成与20年前和10年前相比发生了变化，川金丝猴食物的营养特性与10年的采取的样本没有显著差异，取食策略上的高度灵活性使得该物种的营养和能量策略没有发生显著变化，这就为进一步探究边缘分布物种应对气候变化的觅食和营养机制研究具有重要的借鉴意义。无量山西黑冠长臂猿的种群数量与10年前相比呈上升趋势，其栖息地面积也进一步扩大，长臂猿的觅食策略与10年前相比没有明显变化。本项目取得的成果为进一步研究这两种珍稀濒危灵长类的“气候-植被-动物”间的作用模式起到一定的借鉴和参考作用，为深入探究灵长类应对气候变化的研究、以及濒危动物的生态保护和栖息地的管理起到很好的推动和指导作用。

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