绿洲生态系统服务与景观格局耦合过程及权衡的定量研究

Research of coupling process and trade-off between ecosystem services and landscape pattern is an urgent need for interdisciplinary research of geography and ecology, and it is also the realistic need in ecosystem management decisions. For the lack of assessment tools and other issues in the process of integration mechanism research, we aim to develop an integrated spatial assessment model based on multi-disciplinary coupling modules. Using this model as the main quantitative research tool to: (1) simulate and assess the variation of multiple ecosystem services (including crop production, cultural service, carbon storage and sequestration) and biodiversity from 1995 to 2015 in an artificial desert oasis, which located in the central part of the Hexi Corridor; (2) develop scenarios library for different decisions of landscape management; and (3) trade-offs between the potential quantity and value change of ecosystem services and biodiversity in history periods, 2016-2035, separately, and the case study is helpful to coordinate ecological conservation and human well-being development by exploring decision support function based on the integrated assessment tool. The whole quantitative research was designed to answer the following scientific questions: 1) the coupling mechanism of ecosystem services and landscape pattern at cross-scale; and 2) temporary and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services trade-offs and decision-making functions. Ultimately, the research project is expected to useful for local government regulators in the comprehensive decision-making process of crop yield estimation, evaluation of tourism development, land resource assessment and environmental landscape planning, which can provide scientific assessment tools and will play an important theoretical reference function.

认识生态系统服务与景观格局耦合及权衡机理既是亟需跨学科研究的前沿课题，也是绿洲环境管理决策的现实需要。针对研究中集成评估工具不足等问题，初步发展一个基于多模块耦合的空间显式集成评估模型。基于模型：(1)模拟1995-2015年河西走廊荒漠人工绿洲作物生产、文化服务、固碳和生物多样性维护等重要生态系统服务功能的多时空尺度变化；(2)发展景观管理决策情景库；(3)定量权衡绿洲历史时期及不同决策组合情景下2016-2035年生态系统服务物质量和价值量的空间显式变化，探索协调绿洲生态保护与人类福祉关系的模型决策辅助功能。通过定量研究解决如下关键科学问题：1)生态系统服务与景观格局如何实现跨尺度的机理耦合；2)生态系统服务权衡的时空异质性如何转化为决策辅助功能。预期本项目最终能为当地职能部门进行农作物估产、旅游开发评价、土地资源评估和环境景观规划等综合决策过程提供可用的科学评估工具和重要理论参考。