大型复杂现代煤化工项目投资价值的战略评价研究

Large modern coal chemical industry project has a strategic investment project of the following features: the complex technology of scale effect of the assets, the strong uncertainties of cash flow, competition degree is high, value connotation is rich, make standard project evaluation method (DCF) is difficult to do, need development project investment strategic value evaluation theory and implementation method (refers to the flexibility of the project, competitive and inclusiveness of the value of the valuation). This subject is relying on Erdos Basin national energy base coal chemical industry project, study on the large and complex chemical project investment value of the strategy evaluation of the theory and implementation method. The main research contents for: 1) to study various levels of uncertainty of strategic value evaluation theory; 2) establish level to uncertainty, method of evaluation, and strategic objectives for 3 d coordinate project strategic value evaluation system; 3) based on "Context simulate ", "option game" and "insurance value" and so on thought method, construction measure all kinds of uncertainty of the levels of project assessment of the implementation of the strategic value method; 4) innovation development of based on "insurance thought" the future earnings wholly ignorant project strategy evaluation technology and based on "communicative rationality" inclusiveness value techniques; 5) through the case measure large complex coal liquefaction project's strategic value, and puts forward the dynamic optimization of the project investment policy suggestions.

大型现代煤化工项目具有战略性投资项目的如下特征：规模性技术复杂、资产专用性强、现金流不确定性大、竞争度高、价值内涵丰富，致使标准项目评价方法(DCF)难以胜任，需要开发项目投资的战略价值评估理论与实施方法（指对项目的灵活性、竞争性和包容性价值的估值）。本课题依托鄂尔多斯盆地国家能源基地的煤化工项目，研究大型复杂煤化工项目投资价值战略评估的理论与实施方法。主要研究内容为：1)研究各种不确定层次下的项目战略价值评估理论；2)建立以不确定性层次、评估方法和战略目标为三维坐标的项目战略价值评估体系；3)基于"情境模拟"、"期权博弈"和"保险价值"等思想方法，建构测度各种不确定层次下的项目战略价值评估的实施方法；4）创新性开发基于"保险思想"的面向未来收益完全无知项目的战略评估技术和基于"交往理性"的包容性价值的评估技术；5)通过案例测度大型复杂煤液化项目的战略价值，提出动态优化项目投资的政策建议。