基于陆海统筹的多重人类活动对山东海湾生态系统的协同影响及适应性调控机制

Under the background of rapid urbanization in coastal areas of China, multiple human activities with high intensity lead to the loss of bay key habitat, the aggravation of environmental pollution, and severely threaten the bay ecosystem health. Systematically clarifying the synergistic effect mechanism of multiple human activities, including pollutant from land-based sources, sea reclamation and aquaculture, is the premise and key for establishing bay ecosystem management countermeasures. This study will take the change and regulatory mechanisms of bay ecosystem under the synergistic effects of multiple human activities as the research goals. The spatiotemporal change characteristics and driving factors of ecological pressures caused by human activities in typical bays in Shandong Province will be analyzed and the long-term and accumulative effects of human activity on bay key ecological processes will be identified. A bay ecosystem dynamics model under the synergistic effects of multiple human activities will be established, and scenario simulations of bay ecosystem change and response to different pressures will be conducted to reveal the change mechanism of bay ecosystem influenced by multiple human activities in basin-estuary-coastal waters system. The maintenance mechanism of bay ecosystem health under the influences of multiple human activities will be analyzed. The spatial mismatch characteristics of the pressure source (mainland) and carrier (sea) of the bay ecosystem health will be clarified. The adaptive management countermeasures of bay ecosystem based on coordinated land and marine development will be proposed, which could support the marine ecological conservation and ecological civilization construction in coastal areas in China.

在我国沿海地区快速城镇化背景下，高强度人类活动造成海湾关键生境丧失，污染加剧，严重威胁了海湾生态系统健康。系统阐明陆源污染、围填海、海水养殖等多重人类活动的协同影响机制是科学制定海湾生态系统管理对策的前提和关键。本项目以揭示多重人类活动协同作用下海湾生态系统演变与调控机制为研究目标，通过剖析山东典型海湾人类活动造成的生态压力时空演变特征及其驱动因子，辨识其对海湾关键生态过程的长期和累积性影响；建立多重人类活动影响的海湾生态系统动力学模型，开展不同压力下海湾生态系统演变与响应的情景模拟，揭示“流域-河口-近海”系统内多重人类活动协同影响下海湾生态系统演变机制；剖析多重人类活动影响下海湾生态系统健康维持机制，根据海湾生态系统健康压力源（陆）与承载体（海）的空间错位特征，提出基于陆海统筹的海湾生态系统适应性管理对策，为支撑我国沿海地区环境保护与海洋生态文明建设提供重要科学依据。

长期以来在围填海、陆源污染排放、水产养殖等高强度人类活动影响下，我国海湾生态系统健康面临严峻威胁。基于莱州湾、胶州湾等10余个航次生态调查数据以及桑沟湾历史调查资料，系统阐明多重人类活动对山东典型海湾生态系统的影响机制，建立了近海生态系统动力学模型和模拟系统，提出了基于海陆统筹的海湾适应性管理对策，为支撑我国沿海地区环境保护与海洋生态文明建设提供重要科学依据。主要研究结论和结果如下：.（1）阐明了多重人类活动对山东典型海湾生态系统的影响机制。分析了近40年山东近岸海域典型人类活动造成的生态压力时空演变特征，解译了围海造地及其造成的可运动水体边界线变化，揭示了其驱动机制；综合利用遥感资料和水文模型估算了陆源污染物入海通量，分析了对山东近海污染压力；基于产排污系数，估算了莱州湾海水养殖主要污染物排海通量，进而揭示陆源污染、围填海、海水养殖等多重人类活动对关键海洋生态过程的影响机制。.（2）建立了“流域—河口—近海”多重人类活动影响下近海生态系统动力学模型。分析了营养盐变化对典型海湾生态系统影响的关键过程，辨识典型海湾生态系统演变的主要胁迫因子，建立了多重人类活动影响下包含多种营养盐、浮游植物、浮游动物的海洋生态系统动力学模型，发展了海洋生态系统动力学模型数据同化方法和空间最优化插值方法，提出了渤海陆源无机氮污染负荷分配建议方案。.（3）按照陆海统筹的理念提出了近海生态保护策略。揭示了莱州湾等典型海湾生态系统健康主要胁迫因素，基于陆海统筹的理念提出海湾生态系统健康适应性调控对策，被生态环保部门采纳，有力支撑了沿海地区环境保护与海洋生态文明建设。.发表论文33篇，其中SCI论文30篇；获授权国家技术发明专利4项，登记软件著作权1项。3人晋升正高级专业技术职称；培养研究生25名。1部英文专著入选经典中国国际出版工程立项清单，相关成果获海洋工程科学技术一等奖1项。

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