基于脆弱性-可持续生计分析框架的农村扶贫模式实施效果评估

Improving the quality and efficiency of poverty reduction has become a key issue for China’s anti-poverty projects since entering the critical phrase of combating rural poverty, and this is also the main reason that Chinese government claimed to combat poverty accurately recently. During 30 years of practice, an abundance of effective anti-poverty patterns has been sprung up, such as work-for-food, whole-village-pushing-forward, education-and-training, industrialization, urbanization, movement-and-migration, loan-and-credit et al. However, the difference of effects for applying those patterns in practice is enormous because of lack of thorough research on their working mechanisms and the sustainability of effects for poverty elimination. Therefore, it is academically and practically urgent and important to carry out systemically quantitative assessment and research on the implementing effects of these antipoverty patterns. In reference to the international frontier academic thoughts and research ideas on vulnerability analysis and sustainable livelihoods approaches, this program firstly makes a summarization and analysis of the characteristics of anti-poverty patterns and the status and changing mechanisms of vulnerability and sustainable livelihoods of rural poor people, and then constructs a framework and quantitative models of vulnerability and sustainable livelihoods analysis suitable for effect assessment of anti-poverty patterns in rural China from the multidimensional, systematic and dynamic perspective. This framework and models can help to interpret the mechanism and evaluate the benefits and sustainability of implementing each anti-poverty pattern in improving factors and status of vulnerability and sustainable livelihoods of rural poor people. Finally, connecting empirical study, this research seeks to discover the advantages, disadvantages and potential suitable places/poor people of each anti-poverty pattern and identify the vulnerable or crush factors during implementing them. Hopefully, this research will provide a reference for policymakers to allocate anti-poverty projects and assess and supervise the quality and efficiency of these projects.

改善扶贫项目实施的质量和效率是中国农村扶贫进入攻坚阶段的关键所在，也是政府适时提出“精准扶贫”的主要原因。中国农村扶贫实践中涌现出诸多富有成效的扶贫模式，但由于缺乏对这些模式作用机理及其可持续减贫效果的深入研究和深刻认识，它们在实践中的实施效果差异巨大。及时对这些扶贫模式的实施效果开展系统的定量研究与评价具有重要学术和现实意义。借鉴国际上关于脆弱性和可持续生计分析方法的学术思想，在分析和总结不同扶贫模式作用特点、贫困农户脆弱性-可持续生计状态及其改变机制的基础上，从多维度、一体化、动态角度构建适合于扶贫模式实施效果评估的脆弱性-可持续生计评价框架及定量评估方法模型，以厘清不同模式的作用机理、评估其带来的可持续减贫效益，并结合实证研究分析不同扶贫模式自身的优缺点、适宜推广地域/贫困群体类型及执行过程中潜在的脆弱环节和冲击因子，为国家扶贫项目的精准配置及项目实施质量和效率的评价和监督提供参考。

改善扶贫项目实施的质量和效率是政府“精准扶贫”战略的重要内容之一，也是中国农村扶贫进入攻坚阶段的关键所在。长期以来，由于缺乏系统的定量研究与评价方法手段，学术界一直没有形成对不同扶贫模式可持续减贫效应作用机理的深刻认识，也不能对各扶贫项目在实践中的实施给予准确的评估、及时的矫正和指导。. 本项目借鉴国际上关于脆弱性和可持续生计分析方法的学术思想，在分析和总结不同扶贫模式作用特点、贫困农户脆弱性-可持续生计状态及其改变机制的基础上，从多维度、一体化、动态角度构建了适合于扶贫模式实施效果评估的分析框架，详细解析了不同扶贫模式的作用机理、适宜推广地域/贫困群体类型及执行过程中潜在的脆弱环节和冲击因子，并结合团队的学术成果和国内外已有的相关方法和模型，从受益对象瞄准度评价和瞄准对象脆弱性-可持续生计改善两个方面提出了系统的定量评估方法和步骤。最终，通过选择山西省岢岚县和宁夏固原市原州区和彭阳县的案例点，在收集村户详细调查数据的基础上，借助提出的分析框架和定量评估方法步骤，开展了易地搬迁扶贫模式可持续减贫效应的实证研究。. 实证结果证明了本项目所构建分析框架的合理性及所提方法步骤的有效性，也发现了现有易地搬迁与安置扶贫项目实施过程中的关键因子和薄弱环节，并有针对性地提出意见和建议。虽然依据这一方法开展扶贫项目减贫效果评估需要有农户详细的生计资本数据，对数据的高要求可能会限制该方法的应用，然而，通过选择案例点进行详细的数据收集和分析确实能够对扶贫项目开展系统的定量分析与评价、深化对不同扶贫模式改善农户可持续生计的作用机理认识，并对实际扶贫项目的实施提供有价值的指导。未来可以针对其他扶贫模式开展实证研究以为国家扶贫项目的精准配置及项目实施质量和效率的评价和监督提供参考。

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