我国冬季南方雨雪与亚洲大陆大气热状况

Winter rain and snowfall have severely impact on social economy and human life. We will firstly use station data, satellite data and analysis data to analyze statistically the spatio-temporal character (especial for intraseasonal, interannual and long trend character), and the atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport income and expenses in East Asia and Asian atmospheric thermal condition corresponding to the anomalous winter rain and snowfall in southern China. By the above results, the relation among winter rain and snowfall in southern China, East Asian atmospheric circulation and Asian atmospheric thermal condition is expected to be found out. Then, we will further make sensitive experiment of Asian atmospheric thermal condition on East Asian atmospheric circulation. At last, based on the results of data diagnosis and numerical model, we hope that the physical mechanism of the influence of Asian atmospheric thermal condition on East Asian atmospheric circulation and winter rain and snowfall in southern China is opened out. The research will help us to deeply recognize and understand the spatio-temporal character of winter rain and snowfall in southern China and its relation and mechanism with Asian atmospheric thermal condition.

冬季南方雨雪灾害对社会经济和人民生活产生了重大影响。本项目将利用台站观测资料、卫星资料和再分析资料，首先通过统计诊断分析，从气候学角度系统研究南方雨雪的时空变化特征，特别是季节内、年际和趋势变化特征，南方雨雪异常对应的东亚大气环流特征，水汽输送和收支，以及亚洲大陆大气热状况等，以揭示南方雨雪、东亚大气环流与亚洲大陆大气热状况之间的联系；在此基础上，进一步用气候系统模式开展亚洲大陆大气热状况对东亚大气环流影响的敏感性实验；综合资料和模式的结果揭示出亚洲大陆大气热状况影响东亚大气环流、我国南方雨雪的物理机理。本研究将使我们从气候角度深入认识和理解我国南方雨雪的时空特征，与亚洲大陆大气热状况的联系以及其中的物理机理。