基于GPS、水准资料模拟研究孕震形变场状态及力学特征

Based on the current inter-earthquake deformation model about faults in different earthquake preparation stages, we will develop the numerical simulation model about seismogenic characteristics of tectonic earthquakes in Chinese mainland by combing the theoretical model and observation data. In this process we use 3D Numerical Manifold Method (NMM) as main tool to study the seismogenic deformation field of different seismogenic faults, and use the deformation characteristics reflected by GPS and leveling data before Kunlun earthquake, Wenchuan earthquake and Yushu earthquake as data and earthquake examination. Then the dynamic response property of different seimogenic deformation field will be studied when the regional tectonic stress field changes, which will be used to research the seismic risk and the risk level of seismogenic fault. Based on above results, we will use the long-time scale crustal deformation observation (GPS and leveling data) in the mid-south segment of North-South seismic zone to recognize the risk fault segments(in the late stage of stong earthquake preparation), which the tools include 3D-NMM and 3D-DDA methods. Finally, we will try to develop the research of recognizing the seismogenic deformation field from seismogenic faults to block system.

针对中国大陆构造地震孕震特征，基于已有的断裂带不同孕震阶段震间变形模式，开展理论模型与实测资料结合的数值模拟研究。通过三维数值流形方法（NMM）模拟，给出不同类型孕震断层各种情况的孕震形变场基本模式，并用GPS和水准资料作为数据检验，以昆仑山地震、汶川地震和玉树地震震前变形特征作为震例检验。在此基础上，研究区域构造应力场变化条件下各种不同的孕震形变场的动态响应特征，并根据该动态响应研究断裂带孕震危险性及危险程度。综合以上研究结果，利用南北带中南部较长时间尺度的地壳形变资料（GPS、水准等），通过三维数值流形和三维非连续变形分析（DDA）方法识别处于震间晚期、具备强震危险背景的孕震断层段，并探索把孕震形变场识别的研究从孕震断层向块体系统扩展。