服务业出口增长机制、路径及其生产率效应：中国的理论与经验研究

Under the state of China’s New Normal, how to further promote service exports growth is a key issue for the government. Different from the existing macro- and meso-level literatures, this project studies on the mechanism, paths and productivity effects of service exports growth based on the firm-level perspective and heterogeneous firm trade theory. First, building a theoretical framework as the base-model. Then, discussing the heterogeneity features of service firms, and testing export firms’ productivity premium and its sources. Third, using the firm-level gravity model to construct a three-dimensional decomposition framework and discussing the growth mechanism of service exports. Fourth, combining the heterogeneous firm trade model and standard monopolistic competition model, we decompose service exports growth into intensive margin and extensive margin, and study the differences of their influence factors, which is used to analyze the export growth paths. Lastly, measuring total factor productivity of service firms and service sectors through innovative approaches, and research the effect differences and mechanisms of intensive margin and extensive margin on the productivity. The conclusions can provide a strong theoretical basis and recommend strategies for improving service firms’ outward international level and the government’s efficiency of service exports promotion policy.

在中国经济新常态下，如何进一步促进服务业出口增长是政府部门需要解决的关键问题。区别于已有的宏观和中观研究视角，本项目从服务企业层面出发，以异质性企业贸易理论为支撑，深入研究服务业出口增长的机制、路径和生产率效应。首先，构建理论分析框架，作为课题研究的模型基础；接着，讨论服务企业的异质性特征，检验服务出口企业的生产率溢价及其来源问题；第三，借助企业层面引力模型构建三维结构分解框架，以讨论服务业出口的增长机制问题；第四，结合异质性企业贸易模型和标准的垄断竞争模型，将服务业出口增长分解为集约边际和扩展边际，并考察其影响因素差异，以分析出口增长的路径选择问题；第五，通过方法创新测度服务企业和服务业的全要素生产率，从经验层面考察集约边际和扩展边际的生产率效应差异，并讨论其作用机制。课题研究成果能够为提高服务企业的外向国际化水平和政府部门的服务业出口促进政策效率提供有力的理论依据和策略建议。