财政政策波动性的测度、影响机理、决定因素及政策含义—理论、模拟与经验证据

Based on the major economic problems and the deficiencies in existing researches, this project is to study the measurement, effects, determinants and regulation mechanism of fiscal policy volatility, on basis of which, the project builds methodology system and theoretical framework, then the project provides with policy implications and recommedations with case study and numerical simulation. Firstly, the project will build the proper measurement methods and indicators of policy volatility, and analyze the characteristics and evolutions of policy volatility. Secondly, the project will build a DSGE model with time-varying fiscal policy volatility, irreversible investment and financial friction to analyze the effects of fiscal policy volatility on macro-economy and micro-agents' behaviors under a unified framework, then we will build methodology systm to analyze these effects empirically and sum up the impact mechanisms of fiscal policy volatility. Thirdly, the project will analyze theoretically and empirically the determinants of fiscal policy volatility, and mainly analyze the impacts of income inequality, fiscal rules, systems, resource curse, asset price volatility, urbanization, openness and other factors. The linkage between fiscal policy volatility and monetary policy volatility is also analyzed here. Fourthly, the project will estimate fiscal policy elasticity, policy persistence with actual data and real-time data, and analyze the determinants of policy elasticity and persistence and the relationship among policy elasticity, persistence and discretionary policy volatility. Also the project analyzes the modes and effects of different rules and Institutional constraints, on basis of which, the project sum up the regulation mechanism of fiscal policy volatility. Finally, with numerical simulation and sensitivity analysis, the project will provide us with some policy implications and policy recommendations to improve policy efficiency and reduce policy costs.

立足现实重大问题，针对已有研究不足，本着宏观与微观、理论与经验相结合原则，研究财政政策波动性测度、影响、决定因素和调控机理，构建财政政策波动性研究方法体系与理论框架，给出政策波动性管理的政策方案。首先，构建适宜的政策波动性测度方法和测度指标，分析政策波动性特征及演变规律；第二，构建纳入财政政策波动性、不可逆投资和金融摩擦等因素的DSGE模型，研究政策波动性的宏观影响与微观机理，并构建实证研究方法体系进行经验研究，分析影响机理；第三，从理论与经验角度研究政策波动性的决定，重点考察收入差距、财政规则、制度、资源诅咒、资产价格波动、城市化、开放度及其他因素的影响，分析财政、货币政策波动性联动关系；第四，研究政策弹性、持久性与政策波动性的关系，分析规则、制约约束模式及其影响，总结财政政策波动性调控机理；最后，借助数值模拟和灵敏度分析等方法给出有利于提高政策效率、降低政策成本和代价的政策建议和方案。

财政政策波动性是宏观调控的潜在成本和代价。较大的政策波动性意味着较大的不确定性，不利于引导社会预期，对经济有较大负作用。完善宏观调控体系，实现调控有度，应加强政策波动性管理，亟需厘清政策波动性的影响机制、决定因素和调控机理。虽然国外文献对此问题愈发重视，但已有结论存在较大争议，存在较多不足，而国内相关研究明显缺失。从而，本项目研究具有重要的科学价值和应用价值。 .本项目的重点内容和结论：.第一，在比较已有测度方法基础上，构建适宜中国的引入时变波动性的政策运动方程，有效测度中国政策波动性，发现财政支出波动性较大，税收波动性较小。.第二，财政政策波动性的影响及机理研究。结合中国典型化事实，对Villaverde et al.(2015)模型进行拓展，引入金融摩擦机制，且拓展到开放条件，考察政策波动性的宏观影响和微观机制，并估算了纳入政策波动性影响的政府支出乘数。结果表明：波动性冲击能够导致总产出下滑，不同来源的政策波动性冲击在影响程度和渠道方面存在差异；政策波动性提高了企业边际成本；开放条件下政策波动性的负向影响更大；金融摩擦机制产生显著作用；政策波动性降低了政府支出乘数。.第三，财政政策波动性的决定因素研究。首先检验收入差距、贸易开放、政府规模等因素对政策波动性的影响；随后重点分析收入差距和贸易开放对政策波动性的效应机制。结果表明：收入差距扩大，政策波动性加剧；收入水平较高国家的经济政策的执行更具稳定性；较大的政府规模会导致政策波动性降低；贸易开放会扩大政府规模，从而降低政策波动性。.第四，最优财政规则与政策波动性管理。首先，从波动性角度分析最优财政规则；其次，总结政策波动性的调控机理。研究表明，从降低波动性负面影响看，leeper式规则最优；需要构建明确、科学、合理的政策目标体系，注重规则式调控，寻求有效的制度约束，启动和完善沟通及信息公开机制，重视和完善政策的预期传导机制。.第五，在本项目资助下，完成很多其他相关研究，详见结题报告。

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