我国饮食结构变迁的环境与健康影响驱动因素分析

Improper dietary patterns are not only imposing serious stress on the ecological environment but also raising health risks of multiple diseases in China. These adverse impacts have been further exacerbated by the dietary transition due to rapid socio-economic development. In order to promote consumption behavior changes to reduce these impacts, it is critical to understand how social economic driving forces motivate the shifts of dietary patterns to realize specific environmental impacts and health risks, and how available policy tools may perform in reaching these goals. This study aims at identifying the key socio-economic drivers and the mechanisms that they characterize the food-environment-health nexus in China and evaluating the effects of possible policy designs on motivating dietary change towards lower environmental impact and higher health benefit. Based on the literature investigation and data collection, the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, water consumption, land occupation, and nutrition contents of major food items consumed in China will be quantified. Next, these environmental impacts and the burden of disease associated with diets of various socio-economic groups will be evaluated. Statistical models will then be constructed to identify the mechanisms of key socio-economic drivers in affecting the transitioning diets in China and their environmental and health consequences. Finally, scenarios will be set to evaluate the effect of available policy tools on food consumption behavior change of heterogeneous socio-economic groups and possible benefits from environmental and health synergies. This research will provide scientific support and policy implications for the integrated management of agriculture, environment and public health in China in pursuing the Sustainable Development Goals proposed by the United Nations.

不当的食物消费模式不仅对我国生态环境构成了显著影响，同时引发了多重因营养失衡导致的健康风险。随着社会经济不断发展，以上问题正在迅速加剧。为了有针对性地推动食物消费行为转变，降低其负面效应，亟需对我国饮食结构环境与健康效应变迁的驱动因素及政策设计展开深入探究。本研究旨在探究造成饮食环境与健康影响的社会经济驱动因素，并评估不同政策设计对各社会经济背景下的居民可能产生的影响。研究基于文献调研和食物消费数据收集，分析食品的环境与营养质量，进而评估不同人群饮食结构的温室气体排放、水资源消耗、土地占用和相关健康影响。在此基础上应用统计学习方法，分析造成我国饮食消费及其环境、健康效应变化的社会经济驱动因素。最后，设定政策情景，探究其对不同人群食物消费行为可能造成的影响及环境、健康协同效应。研究成果将为我国实施农业、环境与公共健康协同管理，实现联合国可持续发展目标提供科学支撑和政策建议。

不当的膳食结构不仅对生态环境造成严重压力，也增加了全球各国多种疾病的健康风险。 饮食结构变迁在中国等社会经济快速发展的国家进一步加剧了这些不利影响。为了促进饮食结构改变以减少这些影响，需要识别关键性的社会经济驱动因素，并考虑各国不同的饮食模式和社会经济背景，有针对性地设计政策工具。 本研究旨在识别影响中国以及全球国家食品-环境-健康关系的关键性社会经济驱动因素，并探索可能的干预措施。.本研究整合多源数据，评估了中国居民食物消费的生命周期温室气体排放量、用水量、土地占用量和营养成分。 研究使用统计模型和分解分析，发现肉类消费对环境影响和营养质量下降的贡献逐年增大，但生产方面的技术进步补偿了这一变化带来的温室气体排放。其他新兴经济体也出现了类似趋势，导致自然资源利用效率低下。在中国和美国，更健康但对环境影响更大的饮食与更高的收入相关，趋向膳食指南的饮食结构调整虽然减少了如温室气体排放等环境影响，但可能会导致用水量增加。食品标签可以有效地促进饮食结构转变，但在中国需要进行更复杂的评估。空气污染等环境因素也会改变饮食模式，因此需要进一步关注。本研究为中国乃至全球各国在实现可持续发展目标过程中农业、环境和公共卫生的综合管理提供了政策启示。

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