耐用品创新不确定下的更新换代策略研究

Innovation is the core impetus of firms’ development, and the success of a firm depends critically on its constant introducing new goods through innovation. However, uncertainty is inherent in product innovation. In this case, firms face the following practical problems when they are about to launch the new goods with uncertain innovation, i.e., which type of rollover strategies to adopt and how to appropriately set the prices of new and old goods. This project investigates the renewal and rollover strategies of durable-goods under innovation uncertainty, by taking factors such as consumer behavior, market competition, products discount, and innovational technology spillovers into account. Methodologies such as dynamic programming, stochastic optimization, optimal control, game theory, and social science computing experiments are utilized to develop and solve the game theoretic models over multiple periods. From the perspective of the durable-goods firm, the purpose of this project is to find out the condition under which the single- or dual-rollover strategy will be adopted and to determine the optimal prices of the new and old products when it faces different types of consumers. Moreover, we will explore how would innovation uncertainty affect the optimal renewal and rollover strategies of the durable-goods firm. From the standpoint of consumers, this project aims to reveal the impact of innovation uncertainty on the optimal purchasing behaviors and consumer surplus of myopic and strategic consumers, respectively. Additionally, the assumptions and managerial insights of the theoretical models will be verified by experimental research and investigation on typical durable-goods firms. The findings of this project could provide the durable-goods firms in China with a theoretical decision-making basis in the choice of renewal and rollover strategies under the environment with innovation uncertainty.

创新是企业发展的核心动力，能否通过创新不断推出新产品是决定企业成败的关键。但产品创新本质上具有不确定特征，企业在推出创新不确定的新产品时，应采取何种产品换代策略以及如何对新老产品定价是亟待解决的现实问题。本项目研究耐用品创新不确定下的更新换代策略问题，考虑消费者行为、市场竞争、产品折旧和创新技术溢出等因素，运用动态规划、随机优化、最优控制、博弈论和社会科学计算实验等方法，建立耐用品企业和消费者的多周期博弈模型并求解分析。从耐用品企业视角，讨论面向不同类型消费者时，单品换代策略和共生换代策略的适用条件以及新老产品的价格设定，并探讨创新不确定对其更新换代策略的影响；从消费者视角，揭示垄断和竞争环境下创新不确定对短视和战略消费者的购买行为和消费者剩余的影响。调研典型耐用品企业，实证检验理论模型假设和结论，为创新不确定下我国耐用品企业的更新换代策略选择提供理论决策依据。

创新是时代发展的主旋律。企业唯有坚持创新不断推陈出新，才能立足于激烈的竞争市场，进而实现可持续发展。但创新具有不确定性，创新失败会使企业无法获得足够利润弥补创新成本，从而弱化创新积极性。因此，耐用品企业在推出创新不确定性产品时，如何选择更新换代策略成为了关乎生存和发展的关键问题。.针对该问题，项目负责人主要开展了三个方面的研究：一是创新不确定下垄断企业的更新换代策略。找出了垄断企业创新升级产品，采取静/动态定价以及单品/共生换代策略的条件，讨论了需求不确定、风险规避程度、产品折旧程度、产品促销、渠道权力等的影响，并从企业收益、消费者剩余和社会福利等视角进行了分析。二是创新不确定下竞争企业的更新换代策略。考虑了供应链竞争、不同品牌产品竞争等，量化了不同程度的竞争对企业的创新、定价和换代决策的影响效果，阐明了需求不确定、风险规避程度、产品促销、非对称信息等的影响机制，并从企业收益、消费者剩余和社会福利等视角进行了分析。三是创新不确定且存在溢出效应时企业的更新换代策略。在上述研究基础上，考虑了创新技术溢出、产品服务溢出、跨期需求溢出等，证明了创新投资会形成win-win, win-lose, lose-win, lose-lose结果，取决于溢出效应强度和创新不确定程度等，并讨论了创新/需求不确定、风险规避程度、溢出效应、非对称信息等对企业收益、消费者剩余和社会福利的影响。.项目负责人按照计划有序开展阶段性研究工作，取得了实质性研究进展。与美国加州大学欧文分校、南京大学、东南大学、深圳市大数据研究院等高校和科研院所开展了深入交流及合作研究；多次组织并邀请国内外知名专家学者参加项目咨询会议，为研究方向的校准、研究瓶颈的突破、研究质量的提升、研究目标的达成提供了重要保障。依托本项目，负责人共发表学术论文13篇，其中9篇发表在Omega, European Journal of Operational Research, Annals of Operations Research, Computers & Industrial Engineering, Transportation Research Part E等国际知名期刊，均被SCI或/和SSCI检索；4篇发表在国家自然科学基金委员会管理科学部认定的A级重要期刊。

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