实现碳峰值与强度目标的区域低碳发展路径协同优化研究

Achieving the carbon emission peak and intensity targets is an important strategic move for China to deal with climate change and implement green development. To scientifically design the pathways for achieving the above dual carbon restriction targets to promote China’s green and low carbon development but reduce its potential negative economic and social shock, it is necessary to consider the compatibility and inconsistence between the two carbon restriction targets, great diversity of economic development level and function & orientation among different regions, the potential overlaps and conflicts between different carbon mitigation policies, based on the synergic optimization principles. This application will comprehensively using the synergic optimization theory, dynamic optimization method, spatial econometric method, multi-regional dynamic computable equilibrium model, multi-regional input-output model and spatial structural decomposition to study the target synergy between carbon emission peak and carbon intensity restriction and pathways to improve this synergy, regional synergic optimization of pathways for achieving the dual carbon restriction targets, potential synergic effects of different carbon mitigation policies especially the carbon trading scheme and carbon tax. The key issues in this study are the synergy mechanism of the dual carbon restriction targets, temporal and spatial assignment schemes of the dual carbon restriction targets from the perspective of synergic optimization, modeling the mix scheme of carbon emission trading and carbon tax, handling the uncertainty problem in designing the synergic optimization schemes for the pathways for achieving the carbon mitigation targets, and description and identification of the impact model of inter-regional economic linkage on carbon emission from the supply perspective.

实现碳峰值与强度目标是中国应对气候变化、推进绿色发展的战略举措。科学制定上述双重碳控制目标的实现路径以促进中国的绿色低碳经济发展，并降低其潜在的经济社会负面冲击，需要按协同优化原则考虑两种碳控制目标的匹配性与不一致性、不同区域经济发展水平和功能定位的巨大差异、各种碳减排政策之间可能存在的重叠与冲突。本课题综合应用协同优化原理、动态优化方法、空间计量经济学方法、多区域动态可计算一般均衡模型、多区域投入产出模型及空间结构分解研究碳峰值与强度控制的目标协同性及其提升途径、实现双重碳控制目标的区域低碳发展协同优化路径、不同碳减排政策特别是碳交易与碳税的潜在协同效应。研究中的关键问题是双重碳控制目标的协同机制、协同优化视角下双重碳控制目标的时空分解机制、碳交易与碳税混合减排机制的模型刻画、双重碳控制目标实现路径协同优化方案设计中不确定性问题的处理、刻画与识别供给视角下区域间经济关联的碳排放影响模式。

中国经济社会正处于绿色低碳发展转型时期，碳峰值和强度目标的实现面临诸多复杂因素干扰。如何化解这些因素的不利影响而扩大其积极影响，关键也在于科学地规划双重碳控制目标的实现路径，并合理设计和实施配套政策。项目从理论上探索了碳总量和碳强度双重约束的经济-环境影响机理以及两者的差异性，探讨了双重碳控制目标及其实现路径协同优化的机理，基于公平与效率综合原则提出了碳总量与强度控制目标时空分解策略。从现实情况出发分析了实现双重碳约束目标面临的机遇和挑战，结合预测方法识别了各区域碳达峰的差异化路径。通过区分用作燃料的能源和用作原料的能源，构建了全国CGE模型和多区域CGE模型，编制了相应的多区域SAM表、并校准了关键参数。在此基础上，模拟了新冠肺炎疫情对中国经济发展和碳强度目标可能产生的影响，继而估算了碳总量和碳强度控制目标在时空分解方案下对全国和区域经济发展影响。综合理论与模拟分析，区域协同推进低碳发展的关键路径，提出了相关政策建议。

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