基于系统恢复力视角的综合风险管理框架和对策优化模型

Strengthening the comprehensive risk management and prevention strategy is one of the top priority work in building a moderately prosperous society, promoting sustainable development in China. The comprehensive risk management are facing the issues of lacking systematic directive frameworks, ambiguous on strategy impact, and low overall implementation efficiency and so on, hardly to adapt to the need for complex, systematic and dynamic regional management issues, which are due to the complexity of risk process, coupling of spatial and temporal factors, and multiple scales overlays, all increased the difficulty to carry out scientific management optimization. Based on the perspective of system resilience, this study trying to improvement of management framework, measurement indicators and policy efficiency model, to put forward the optimization strategies for regional integrated risk management. That is, ①constructing the "risk-vulnerability-resilience" working framework; ②constructing spatial-temporal coupling dynamic simulation model for modelling policy implementation scenarios, taking the risk process as key system flow, and detecting system threshold by vulnerability evaluation; building a new policy efficiency evaluation model by taking the enhancement of system resilience as the core benefits of regulatory policies; ④proposed advices for regional management optimization. This study will take the Yellow River Delta High-Efficiency Ecological Economic Zone as a case. In theory, it can enrich the regional sustainable management framework o with the perspective of system resilience, in practice, it can provide scientific support the development of national high efficiency regional eco-economic region.

加强综合风险管理和防范是全面建成小康社会、统筹推进可持续发展战略的当务之急。我国综合风险管理形势严峻，存在要素多、过程复杂、时空耦合、尺度叠加等不确定性，管理框架和对策优化模型亟待完善。关键问题在于对管理对象的系统性和管理过程的能动机制的认识不足。为此，研究拟引入社会生态系统恢复力的研究视角，从评价和模拟系统响应变化、维持自身均衡发展的能力入手，对风险管理的整体框架、测度指标和效率模型进行优化。包括：①提出基于风险过程管理的“风险-脆弱性-恢复力”的适应性管理框架；②模拟多政策情景下多要素、多过程、多维度的时空耦合动态，评价不同管理对策的综合影响；③以系统恢复力的提升和协调发展为收益，改进政策效率评价模型；④提出区域风险管理决策建议。研究以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为案例区，预期结果将从系统恢复力视角阐明综合风险管理的适应机制和响应框架，为开展面向区域可持续性的管理对策优化提供科学依据。

加强综合风险管理和防范是全面建成小康社会、统筹推进可持续发展战略的当务之急。我国综合风险管理形势严峻，存在要素多、过程复杂、时空耦合、尺度叠加等不确定性，管理框架和对策优化模型亟待完善。关键问题在于对管理对象的系统性和管理过程的能动机制的认识不足。为此，本项目引入了社会—生态系统恢复力的研究视角，从评价和模拟系统响应变化、维持自身均衡发展的能力入手，对风险管理的整体框架、测度指标和效率模型进行了优化。研究是对原有的综合生态风险理论内涵的拓展，也是运用风险视角实现了对系统恢复力的量化评价和成因分析。主要研究结果包括：① 整合多源时空数据，结合案例区示范特征，针对黄河三角洲的土地退化和生态保护等问题，提出了基于风险过程管理的“风险-脆弱性-恢复力”的适应性管理框架；②运用系统动力学模型和因果链模型，模拟了多政策情景下多要素的动态演化，为未来决策和管理提供依据；③以系统恢复力的提升和协调发展为政策收益，改进了政策效率评价模型；④开展不同情景下的案例区社会生态系统演化动态分析，提出区域风险管理的情景预测和决策建议。研究所构建的有关风险管理和适应性对策，能够为响应的区域管理提供知识参考和数据支撑。研究结果以期刊论文、软件著作权和专著的形式进行了发表和成果转化。本项目研究以黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为案例，从系统恢复力视角阐明综合风险管理的适应机制和响应框架，为开展面向区域可持续性的管理对策优化提供了科学依据。

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