农地多功能供需错位及协同作用机制研究—以武汉城市圈为例

Agricultural land, critical scarce environmental resources for human to survive, is considered multifunctional when it has other additional functions to food and fiber production. Concerns regarding productivity-driven agricultural management intensified from the early 1970s, due to its dramatic effects on soil quality, rural vitality, food safety, and eco-environment. Researches turned to multifunction, as a paradigm of international land science research and practice, to explore sustainable agriculture and rural development, might be a strategy for China to solve “three rural issues: agriculture, rural areas and farmers”. The question of how to match demand and supply, and how to trade off and synergize multifunction of agricultural land at a lower cost still remain unclear. In this project, an exploratory framework, a chain relationship among perception, expectation and behavior from micro agent, and characteristics, structure and regular patterns from macro scale, has been developed to analyze agricultural land multifunction. The study area is Wuhan Metropolitan Area. At first, on the basis of classification of agricultural land multifunction, we seek to explore producer’s and consumer’s perception, expectation and behavior of multifunction of agricultural land, to diagnoses spatial mismatch between demand and supply of agricultural multifunction, and to improve the understanding of the major factors shaping the mismatch. And then, agricultural land multifunction index is built to analyze the relationship, the trade-offs and synergies among multifunction of agricultural land, and to simulate factors contributing to change of multifunction of agricultural land. The questionnaire data, the expert knowledge, land use/cover data and social-economic statistical data are employed. The results might provide the base for agricultural preservation compensation, planning and management, and for sustainable agricultural and rural development not only in study area, but beyond.

农地是人类赖以生存和发展的关键稀缺资源环境要素，具多功能特性。单一功能的生产性农业已经对土壤质量、农村活力以及粮食安全、生态环境造成了巨大影响，如何从多功能视角，以较低成本权衡与协同农地多功能，实现农地多功能供需有效对接，以寻求农业农村的可持续发展，将可能成为破解我国“三农”问题的策略。本研究构建认知、期望、行为和特征－结构－规律的微观宏观供需双边匹配理论分析框架，以武汉城市圈为例，在农地多功能分类的基础上，采用问卷调查数据以及专家知识探讨供需主体对农地多功能的认知、期望与行为，并绘制供需专题图，分析农地多功能供需特征、结构与规律以及供需错位类型和时空变化特征与机制；利用土地利用/土地覆盖统计数据以及社会经济统计数据，从地块、农场、地区等尺度分析揭示农地多功能之间的关系、权衡与协同作用区域类型及作用机制。研究成果可为研究区乃至全国耕地保护、规划与管理以及农业和农村的可持续发展提供依据。

全球二十一世纪以来的单一功能生产性农业对土壤质量、农村活力以及粮食安全和生态环境造成了巨大影响，农业多功能性受到了世界粮农组织、欧盟以及经济合作发展组织的认可，已被用来作为维持世界各国国内农业与乡村可持续发展的策略。我国从2005年以来颁布的一系列政策要求农地多功能供给由单一特征生产功能向多功能转变，并呈现出需求多样性的特征。一方面，由于主体角色缺位、错位、弱化现象并存，农地多功能的需求难以得到满足，进而导致供给不足、供给落后于需求并存造成时空上供需错位现象；另一方面，单一生产功能的彰显导致系统的不确定甚至失衡，而多功能的诉求，客观上存在权衡与协同。因此，如何从多功能视角，以较低成本权衡与协同农地多功能，实现农地多功能供需有效对接，以寻求农业农村可持续发展，已成为破解我国三农问题的策略。本项目建立了农地特征-功能-服务-福利供需链条关系理论分析框架；从宏观空间尺度和微观主体尺度，主要以武汉城市圈和湖北省为例，利用土地遥感数据、社会经济统计数据、网络爬虫大数据以及问卷调查数据，采用偏相关分析方法、空间自相关分析方法、多元回归分析方法、多层空间计量模型，识别了研究区耕地多功能供需主体错位和空间错位表现；考察了耕地多功能权衡与协同关系的时空变化特征；揭示了耕地多功能数量和结构的福利效应；提出了差异化的农地多功能保护政策，对农地多功能供需错位、权衡与协同关系、福利效应以及保护政策等进行了有益探索。研究成果已部分应用于系列国土规划和高标准农田建设，为农业农村的可持续发展提供了智力支撑。

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