京津冀百年均一化气候资料日值序列构建的研究

Long-term continuous daily observations are important basis for the study of extreme climate events and their change characteristics in the past 100 years. However, the pattern of extreme climate change before the 1950s has not been well interpreted, due to the lack of reliable daily climate data on a hundred years scale in the world. In this study, the daily data of mean temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation observed at three meteorological stations in Beijing, Tianjin and Baoding since 100 years are taken to investigate. Firstly, the interpolation technology of missing data is developed based on the observed data. Secondly, the combined homogenization technology based on RHtestV4, SNHT, and E-P is explored by using the complete metadata, to improve the authenticity of the breakpoints discrimination, and to make the inhomogeneity adjustment in the series more objective. Then the representative hundred-year homogenized temperature and precipitation daily series are established in China. As a result, the trend of extreme temperature and precipitation events in China, represented by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, has been revealed, and its variation amplitude has been quantified. The study of this project will provide a new reliable centurial-scale data base for extreme climate change, and provide a reference for the construction of long-term reliable daily series under different regional climate conditions in China, to give full play on the scientific value of the long-term climate data in China in the study of regional extreme climate change.

长年代连续的日值观测资料是研究百年来极端气候事件及其变化特征的重要基础支撑。目前国内外由于缺乏可靠的逐日百年尺度气候资料，使得20世纪50年代以前的极端气候变化规律仍然没有得到很好的诠释。本项目拟以北京、天津、保定3个气象站百年以来观测的平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和降水日值资料为研究对象，首先基于观测资料研制缺测数据插补技术；其次采用完整的元数据资料，探索基于RHtestV4、SNHT、E-P等多种技术的组合性均一化分析方法，提高断点判别的真实性，构建我国具有代表性的百年均一化气温和降水日值序列；进而揭示以京津冀为代表的我国百年来极端温度和降水事件的趋势变化规律，量化其变化幅度。本项目的研究将为极端气候变化领域建立新的可靠数据基础，同时为我国不同区域气候背景条件下长年代可靠日值序列的构建提供借鉴，充分发挥我国长年代气候资料在区域极端气候变化研究中的科学价值。