清洁产业出口扩张与污染天堂规避——基于贸易、环境政策协调的CGE模型研究

In recent years, along with the extensive expansion of the manufacturing sector, the status of Chinese world factory has to be laid. However, the national income is growing rapidly, China has entered a peak period of environmental stress. Around the dual goals of economic growth and environmental protection, all walks of life are beginning a fierce discussion. About the debate of trade and environment issues, Economists and Environmental experts use a point of view of open economy, providing people a more objective understanding about industrial pollution.. With the core of avoiding "pollution haven", the project’s first extract is introduced the relevance of trade and environment that environmental and economists experts’ generally agreement, with the theoretical model to reveal the "pollution haven" formation mechanism and on the economic logic based underlying ,around the impact of pollution and two core elements of avoiding the trade and environmental policies, further analysis how do the trade and environmental policies affect the growth mechanism of the cleaning industry.. Secondly, according to the assumption requires and conclusions revelation of the theoretical analysis ,we use the emissions of per unit output as the main technical indicators, to calculate and classify the level of cleanliness , and on this basis, through test the hypothesis of "pollution haven" in different country and region, in order to screening the existence of hypothesis.. Finally, we will use a computable general equilibrium model (CGE model), to investigate the path of avoiding pollution haven and export expansion clean industrial, when trade and environment policy are coordinating in China, and put forward the policy advice of policy coordination use in the end.

随着制造业的扩张，中国世界工厂的地位得以奠定。当国民收入快速增长的同时，中国也进入了环境压力的高峰期。围绕着经济增长与环境保护的双重目标，学者们对贸易与环境问题的争论，从开放经济的角度为人们提供了一个污染形成更为客观的认识。本项目研究以污染天堂规避为核心。首先，提炼出被贸易和环境学者普遍认同的贸易与环境污染内在关联性，借助一般均衡分析模型以揭示污染天堂形成机制及其背后所隐含的经济学逻辑，围绕影响污染天堂形成与规避的贸易和环境政策两个核心，深入分析贸易、环境政策影响清洁产业成长的作用机制。其次，依据理论分析的结论启示，以产业单位产出污染排放为主要指标，对产业进行清洁化测算与分类，并在此基础上对中国或其它地区污染天堂假说检验，以甄别假说的存在性。最后，将运用可计算的一般均衡模型（CGE模型）探讨中国贸易与环境政策协调作用下的污染天堂规避与清洁产业出口扩张路径，提出贸易环境政策协调运用的建议。

在加入世界贸易组织之后,中国经济又经历了新一轮的快速增长,进出口贸易规模逐步扩大。然而,与中国对外贸易飞速发展相伴而来的是日益严重的环境污染问题,可持续发展面临的严峻挑战。扩大清洁产业出口与污染天堂规避，成为了现阶段贸易经济发展与环境协调中亟待解决的问题。利用合理的模型进行政策评价,会起到事半功倍的效果,有利于国家在政策与计划层面更有效的推进各项改革。可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型作为有效的政策分析工具已经在世界上得到了越来越广泛的重视与研究应用,国内学者也越来越多的关注这一研究方法,并开始将该模型应用到我国的税收、贸易、环境等政策模拟和分析。. 主要的研究内容及重要结论有以下3个方面：第一，研究构建一个贸易与环境政策CGE模型分析征收环境税、R&D补贴,以及两种政策协调作用对中国出口产业结构及经济发展、污染排放的影响。模拟结果表明:单一的征收环境税或进行R&D补贴虽然都能够优化出口产业结构,但有各自的弊端;如果两种政策协调作用,就能够在不影响或促进经济增长的同时,做到最大限度的污染减排,且出口产业结构的优化程度比单一政策作用时更高。因此,中国可以考虑使用环境税与R&D补贴政策的组合实现对出口产业结构的优化,在发展对外贸易的同时,尽可能地规避环境污染问题,促进经济可持续发展。第二，研究构建GTAP模型对"美国对国内征收碳税、美国对国内征收碳税并对中国高碳工业品征收碳关税、中美两国同时征收相同强度的国内碳税"三种情境进行模拟与比较分析。结果发现:相比被动接受美国征收碳关税,中国主动采取减排措施更有利于产业结构低碳化发展,且能够配合供给侧结构性改革;第三，建立一个多部门的静态CGE模型,编制社会核算矩阵,模拟出口退税率调整对各个产业产量的影响以及产业结构的变化情况。结果表明:对重污染行业降低出口退税率有助于实现产业结构升级,促进污染排放量低的产业发展。

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