城镇居住建筑碳排放总量和强度双控目标设定与实现路径研究

Reasonable setting of the double control targets of the quantity and intensity of China’s urban residential building carbon emissions is crucial for China to achieve the 2030 carbon emission peak target. However, the existing studies have not yet conducted in-depth investigation on the internal mechanism of the urban residential building carbon emissions. This makes the setting of the double control targets for China’s building carbon emissions to be insufficient in scientificity and hinders the development of carbon emission reduction work. This research aims to examine macro and micro factors that impact urban residential building carbon emissions from the systematic perspective, and deeply analyze the interaction mechanism of these underlying factors. The bottom-up urban residential building end-use energy model is embedded into the system dynamics model so as to establish a dynamic simulation model that reflects the interaction between macro and micro factors of urban residential building carbon emissions. With the above as basis, static scenario analysis and dynamic stochastic simulation are combined to explore the dynamic evolution trend of urban residential building carbon emissions in the future. Finally, the probability distribution function is employed to reasonably ascertain the double control targets and realization paths of the quantity and intensity of China’s urban residential building carbon emissions. The research can enrich the theoretical system and research methods related to building carbon emissions to some extent, and provide a new idea for building carbon emissions research. Meanwhile, it can provide a general methodology system for governments, which can help to improve the scientific and rational decision-making for governments in the planning and emission reduction path of building carbon emission reduction.

合理设定我国城镇居住建筑碳排放总量和强度双控目标对我国实现2030年碳排放达峰目标至关重要。然而现有研究未对城镇居住建筑碳排放的内在作用机制深入研究，致使我国建筑碳排放双控目标设定科学性不足，制约了我国碳减排工作的开展。本项目拟从系统视角考察城镇居住建筑碳排放的宏观和微观层面的影响因素，深入剖析影响因素间的相互作用机理。将自底向上的城镇居住建筑终端用能模型嵌入系统动力学模型中，构建宏微观要素联动的城镇居住建筑碳排放动态仿真模型。在此基础上将静态情景分析与动态随机模拟相结合，探析城镇居住建筑碳排放未来的动态演变趋势。最后，借助概率分布函数合理确定我国城镇居住建筑碳排放总量和强度双控目标及实现路径。本项目在一定程度上可以丰富建筑碳排放相关理论体系和研究方法，为建筑碳排放研究提供一种新思路。同时可以为政府提供一套通用的方法学体系，有助于提升政府在建筑碳减排目标规划与减排路径决策的科学性和合理性。

城镇居住建筑碳排放在整个建筑部门占有很高的比重，合理确定城镇居住建筑碳排放总量和强度的控制目标对于整个建筑部门的碳达峰至关重要。基于此，本研究从系统视角出发对建筑碳排放的影响因素进行了全面深入的研究，识别了影响城镇居住建筑碳排放的影响因素及其作用机理，发现影响因素体系是一个六级递阶层次结构模型，人口因素、城镇化水平、经济发展水平、产业结构等是驱动建筑碳排放的根本因素。进一步针对城镇化、收入水平等因素构建了城镇建筑碳排放的影响机理理论模型，证实了城镇化、收入等因素对建筑碳排放的直接、间接及动态影响效应。基于系统科学理论，构建了基于终端用能模型和系统动力学模型相结合的城镇居住建筑碳排放达峰动态仿真预测模型，采用该模型对不同气候区的城镇建筑碳排放达峰情况进行了仿真预测，揭示了城镇居住碳排放达峰的演化规律。基于所构建的动态仿真预测模型，将静态情景分析方法与动态随机模拟方法相结合，动态模拟了城镇居住建筑碳排放达峰峰值和达峰时间的概率分布情况，根据达峰的概率分布情况，对我国建筑部门碳排放的总量和强度控制目标进行科学合理设定。最后从提升建筑能效水平、提高建筑部门电气化率、大力发展超低能耗零能耗建筑等角度设计了实现达峰目标的路径和政策建议。本研究能够极大丰富碳排放影响机理及碳达峰碳中和预测的理论和方法体系，对于碳达峰碳中和预测研究提供了全新的研究视角。实践方面为政府部门提供了可靠的方法学依据，为政府部门进行建筑节能减排规划，碳达峰碳中和行动方案等提供有价值的参考。

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