民众延时敏感行为下的双轨制公共服务系统定价与能力规划研究

Due to the limitation of finance budget, the capacity of public service is insufficient all over the world. As a result, long delay and waiting line becomes “identification” of the public service. As the world's most populous country, China is facing even worse situation. To complicate matters further, it could be worse and worse with the aging of the population. To address the challenge, two-tier public service system was successfully adopted in practice. When people are delay sensitive, the behavior character of the people is the most important factor we should consider when setting the price and capacity of two-tier public service system. It is also the cause of famous phenomenon known as “Downs-Thomas” paradox. In the project, we will study the hotspot issues of two-tier public service system in China by using of game theorem and queueing theorem. Unlike the traditional research on the pricing and capacity planning of public service system, we focus on the behavior character of people, which is delay sensitivity. The aim of this project is to reveal the formation mechanism of pricing of two-tier public service system, and also to support the social planner to make decision on the price and capacity of two-tier public service system. Therefore, this research has both scientifical significances and application values.

由于财政预算的限制，各国都面临着公共服务能力不足的问题，长时间等待成了公共服务系统的“标签”。我国作为一个人口大国，这一问题更为突出，而且随着人口结构逐渐老年化，情况将会变得更糟。为了应对这一问题，各国政府都在尝试各种运营策略。双轨制公共服务系统正是在实践中应用最为成功的策略。当民众具有延时敏感行为特征时，这一特征对双轨制公共服务系统的定价与能力规划起着非常重要的作用，也是造成交通领域中很有名的现象——“Downs—Thomas”悖论的重要原因。本项目拟结合博弈论和排队论，从民众延时敏感行为特征的视角，对当前我国双轨制公共服务系统定价与能力规划存在的热点问题展开研究。本项目的研究对于揭示双轨制公共服务系统价格的形成机制具有重要理论意义和学术价值，也为实践中诸如医疗、交通等公共服务系统的定价和能力规划提供理论基础和政策启示。

由于具有生产和消费的同时性，大多数服务系统不能像制造系统一样使用库存来平滑顾客需求的波动，这造成了顾客在服务系统中排队等待现象更为突出。对于一些顾客而言，影响其购买决策的除了价格外，期望等待时间也是一个重要的因素。这样的顾客被称为延时敏感顾客。正如Carlton 和 Perloff(1994)所言，延时敏感顾客是实际中服务企业最常面对的一类顾客。面对延时敏感顾客，服务企业的优先权设置及定价对顾客的行为起着微妙的影响：通常该类问题构成了两阶段的Stackelberg博弈模型。本项目拟结合排队模型和博弈模型对服务企业的优先权设置及定价问题进行研究，探讨服务企业在面向延时敏感顾客时的最优优先权设置及定价策略。本项目的研究对于揭示现实中服务市场细分结构的形成机理具有重要理论意义和学术价值，也为服务型企业的优先权设置，定价以及细分客户群提供重要的理论基础和决策支持。

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