粮食主产区职业粮农形成路径、行为选择与政策优化研究--以江西为例

This research aims to study the behavior of the microcosm main body –.farmers who produce the grain in the grain production areas，by adopting theories of professional division of labor and economies of scale, the possible path logic of the professional farmers in planting rice under agriculture division and farmers differentiation is probed into. In this research xtLogit, xt Probit Model are used to analyze the farmers’ managing behavior in grain producing and its affecting factors; Hierarchical Linear Model is used to analyze the planting performance made by different kinds of farmers and its working mechanism; and based on the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM), it will set up an empirical model of the farmers’ decision-making behavior. It will continuously survey such typical cases as grain mass-production and family farm to discover the regional factors which affect the formation of professional farmers in order to increase the grain harvest in the grain production areas and improve people’s life, as well as form a mechanism of the professional farmers that can help transfer land reasonably, choose planting model rationally, improve the policy system and complete the supporting policy systems greatly to help the government make right decisions.

本项目以粮食主产区粮食生产微观经济主体—农户为研究对象，运用专业分工和规模经济理论，探讨农业分工、农户分化背景下职业粮农形成的可能路径逻辑；利用xtLogit、 xt Probit 模型分析，探讨职业粮农稻作经营行为选择及其主要影响因素；运用多层线性模型，分析不同规模类型农户粮食生产的绩效差异及其机理；利用应用结构方程模型（SEM），构建粮农职业化选择行为决策的实证模型；并以典型个案（种粮大户或家庭农场）跟踪调查分析为重要依据，构建以主产区粮食持续增产、民生持续改善为目标，土地有序流转、农户理性选择、政策体系健全的职业粮农形成机制，为政府决策提供参考。