人民币汇率变动对我国物价水平的微观传递和宏观影响研究

With China's opening up and RMB exchange rate reform deepening, the flexibility of RMB exchange rate will be further increasing, thus the impacts of change in RMB exchange rate on the domestic macro-economy will be further enhancing. Therefore, understanding the impacts of change in RMB exchange rate on the price level in China comprehensively is becoming an important and urgent task. There are so many related studies exist, however, the studies those considering the economic operation feature in China's transition period which in line with economic development are few. This study will investigate the impacts of change in RMB exchange rate on the price level in China from micro and macro these two perspectives. It intends to examine the following questions. First of all, it wants to understand the theoretical and practical basis that how the change in RMB exchange rate impact on the price level. Secondly, it tries to reveal the micro effects, where pass-through from the change in RMB exchange rate to the price level in the transition period. Thirdly, it intends to build the theoretical model that in line with the China's foreign exchange reserves growth to reveal how the change in RMB exchange rate impact on the foreign exchange reserves, and thus implement empirical analysis. Fourthly, it also wants to build the theoretical model that in line with the China's economic development status to analyze how the change in foreign exchange reserves impact on the price level, and thus reveal its inflationary effect. Last but not the least, basing on this research, it puts forward the relevant policy measures in order to deepen the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform, to prevent and control the inflation risks, to implement the effective macro-control policy. This study can play the role in attracting valuable opinions on the relevant research, and it also can compensate for the inadequacy of existing research to a certain extent.

随着我国对外开放度的提高和人民币汇率改革的推进，人民币汇率弹性不断增大，人民币汇率变动对国内宏观经济的影响进一步增强。因此，全面认识人民币汇率变动对我国物价水平的影响就成为了一项重要而紧迫的课题。现有相关研究虽然不少，但综合考虑我国转轨时期经济运行特点、符合经济发展现状的研究寥寥。 本课题将从微观传递和宏观影响两个方面分析人民币汇率变动对我国物价水平的影响。旨在考察：第一，人民币汇率变动影响物价水平的理论与现实依据；第二，转轨时期人民币汇率变动对物价水平的微观传递；第三，构建符合外汇储备增长的人民币汇率变动影响外汇储备的理论模型及进行相关实证分析；第四，构建符合经济发展现状的外汇储备变动影响物价水平的理论模型，并进而揭示其通胀效应；第五，提供深化人民币汇率形成机制改革，防控通货膨胀风险、实施有效宏观调控的政策建议。本课题的实现能够为相关研究起抛砖引玉作用，也能弥补现有相关研究的不足。

随着我国对外开放度的提高和人民币汇率改革的推进，资本账户将逐步放开，人民币汇率弹性不断增大，人民币汇率变动对国内宏观经济的影响进一步增强。因此，全面认识人民币汇率变动对我国物价水平的影响就成为了一项重要而紧迫的课题。.本课题尝试在综合考虑我国转轨时期经济运行特点，分别从微观和宏观视角考察人民币汇率变动对我国物价水平的影响。.在微观视角研究方面，本课题利用最新发展的多结构变化方法考察了人民币汇率的物价传递效应，并分析了它的宏观决定因素。研究结果表明，人民币汇率的物价传递发生多次结构变化，传递效应总体趋减。在传递效应的宏观决定因素方面，通货膨胀率起正作用，但作用大小会随着传递效应的上升而趋减；汇率波动在低传递效应时为负，但随着传递效应的上升逐渐转化为正；而贸易开放度起负影响，作用大小随传递效应的增大而减小。.在宏观视角研究方面：对于人民币汇率变动对我国外汇储备的影响研究方面，针对我国国际收支双顺差已成为外汇储备增长的最重要推动力这一特殊情况，把国际收支融入到外汇储备需求模型中，构建了相对更符合我国外汇储备增长特点的人民币汇率变动对外汇储备影响的理论模型，并进而利用相关数据进行实证分析。实证结果表明，人民币升值将加速外汇储备的增长，人民币实际有效汇率对外汇储备具有明显的正效应。对于我国外汇储备变动对物价水平的影响研究方面，从货币数量论出发，使用VAR系统结合非参数技术进行建模，在一定程度上克服了因模型设定不一致所带来的纷争。接着，本课题从一个综合视角出发，拓展Lin and Wang（2009）的研究框架，结合预期理论进行建模，构建了一个综合考虑我国当前货币政策、汇率政策的理论模型，分析外汇储备、货币供给以及国外通货膨胀率对我国物价水平的影响，并进而利用相关数据，使用分位数回归方法，实证检验了这些关系在我国的具体表现形式。最后，本课题对上述两个视角的研究进行了总结，并提出了相关的对策建议。

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