生态系统服务认知、农户行为选择与生物多样性保护：路径与反馈——以西藏高原为例

As the third pale in the world, Tibetan Plateau has special ecosystem functioning and services service. While, along with the economic development, Tibetan Plateau faces natural habitat destruction, which is driving biodiversity loss in remaining ecosystems, and often directly depend on biodiversity. On 19, February, 2009, People's Republic of China State Council passed “Tibetan Ecological System Protection and Construction Bill”. Based on the bill, the Central Government of China would invest 15 billion RMB to protect and rebuild the ecological system in Tibet. Five years past, does this bill come to its performance? How to assess the process of carrying out this task? For local residents, the land management decisions makers, what can influence their decision? Through the ecological system rebuild projects, many farmers learned the knowledge about the ecosystem services (ES) concept, but do they keep their benefits? .To fill this gap, we plan to carry out a role-playing game to explore how ES cognition mediates feedbacks from environmental change on Tibetan farmers’ behaviors in a mountain grassland system. At first, based on the Value-Belief-Norm Theory (VBN), we plan to carry out a role-playing game to explore how ES cognition mediates feedbacks from environmental change on farmers’ behaviors in Tibet mountain grassland system. In our research, on the close to real landscape game board, farmers will be faced with changes in ES under climatic and socio-economic scenarios and prompted to plan for the future and to take land management decisions as they deemed necessary. Second, we develop an approach which stands for quantifying ecosystem service debts. By creating an extinction debt, we estimate how one anthropogenic driver, habitat destruction, could indirectly diminish one ecosystem service, carbon storage. Then we calculate the wide range for this estimate which reflects the uncertainties in how many plant species will be lost, how much species loss will impact ecosystem functioning and whether plant species loss will decrease soil carbon. Third, based on household survey data, we comparative the interactions of farmers’ decision-making between ecological compensation policies and ecosystem services knowledge, and its feedback about biodiversity conservation. Then we choose the balance way among ecological management, economic development, and biodiversity conservation. .Our exploratory analysis suggests that biodiversity-dependent ecosystem service debts would be globally substantial, even when locally small, if they occur diffusely across vast areas of remaining ecosystems. Our research not only provides the basis for Tibetan Plateau ecological security barrier protection strategy, but also innovates ecosystem services assessment approach.

西藏高原在人类活动胁迫下自然生态系统碎片化趋势明显，影响亚洲乃至全球生态安全，成为国际反华势力分裂西藏的借口。农户行为是影响区域生态系统服务功能的主要因素，但二者之间作用及反馈机理尚不清楚。本研究拟通过对西藏高寒草地生态系统典型植被群落调查和农户行为分析，在申扎生态实验站进行定位试验，基于价值-信仰-规范理论（VBN）构建生态系统服务认知、农户行为选择和生物多样性保护分析框架，通过角色介入模型（Role-playing Game）定量分析生态系统服务认知对农户行为决策的影响以及由此引起的生态系统反馈，对比分析生态补偿政策和生态系统服务认知对农户行为决策影响差异，定量评估认知、决策与生态系统恢复之间的作用路径、程度与方向，提出基于生态系统服务认知的西藏高原生物多样性保护和经济发展方案，为西藏高原发展战略制定提供决策依据，解决人类活动对生态系统胁迫及生态系统反馈难以定量和表征的难题。

西藏高原在人类活动胁迫下自然生态系统碎片化趋势明显，影响亚洲乃至全球生态安全， 成为国际反华势力分裂西藏的借口。农户行为是影响区域生态系统服务功能的主要因素，但二者之间作用及反馈机理尚不清楚。本研究以申扎生态实验站为依托，基于价值-信仰-规范理论（VBN）构建生态系统服务认知、牧户行为选择和生物多样性保护分析框架，通过角色介入模型（Role-playing Game）定量分析生态系统服务认知对农户行为决策的影响以及由此引起的生态系统反馈，对比分析生态补偿政策和生态系统服务认知对农户行为决策影响差异，评估认知、决策与生态系统恢复之间的作用路径、程度与方向。.通过三年的放牧实验，牧户观察到：（1）进行草地水肥管理后，草地花期延长，牧草数量增加，牛羊胴体增长快速，同时牛羊肉质更好（对科学放牧三年的牦牛以及一年的藏系绵羊进行宰杀），牧户能够获得更高的收益；（2）草地综合质量得以提升，从第四年（2019年夏季）开始，试验区放牧承载量增加（由原来单位实验草场只能放牧两只绵羊增加到三只绵羊）；（3）通过三年的放牧实验，牧民发现自然生长草地以及人工管护下不进行放牧的草地其花期、草地美学特征、草地植被恢复过程等都劣于人工管护下适度放牧草地。.分析不同放牧干扰下（自然生长草地、人工管护下零放牧草地、人工管护下适度放牧草地以及人工管护下过度放牧）草地植被、土壤微生物群落以及土壤结构和养分发现：（1）人工管护下适度放牧牧草地的土壤微生物群落最全面，但地表植被多样性低于自然生长草地（主要表现为杂草数量的减少）；（2）人工管护下适度放牧草地经济效益最高，其人工管护成本由优质牛羊出售价格的提升得到补偿；（3）相比较于适度放牧草地，人工管护下过度放牧草地的投入产出比从第三年开始快速跌落，人工管护成本难以收回。.本研究的结论认为：牧户主动参与生态恢复与建设能有效避免外来政策影响下的牧户被动接受，有效促进了试验区完韧性社区建设目标的实现。

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