市场化下的电力来源结构与输配方案优化研究：基于省际层面的视角

In China, power industry is now facing two problems: one is the environmental damage caused by higher proportion of thermal power, the other is high inefficiency caused by outdated systems in the power industry, and they make power marketization reform necessary. Under this situation, we should find a way to solve three scientific issues, that is: what are the sources of power? Where does power come from? And where does it go? With these issues, firstly, we obey the clue of ability evaluation, resources optimization and scenario simulation, and apply system dynamic method to model the supply ability of thermal power with environment constraint, and use logistic model individually to evaluate the supply ability of green electricity, and then secondly, we combine above results and other conditions as constraints to construct a multi-objective programming model for the optimization of power sources structure from the government view. Based on game theory method we solve this model and get the results of optimal power sources structure for every province. Thirdly, we take the results as constraints to build a non-linear programming model for the optimization of electricity transmission among China’s provinces from the view of enterprises, and the solution, overall, will describe the pattern of power market. Further sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis based on China Electricity Simulation System provide more basis for policy design. After all, this research will be very worthwhile since it builds a systematic theoretical framework to analyze the power market, it also gives the answer on the effect of market-oriented reform and thus helps in the change of primary energy industry in practice.

“火电”比例过高造成的环境污染和体制不畅导致的效率低下问题引发了电力市场化改革，力图通过价格机制来解决电力“从何而来、来自何方、去往何处”等科学问题。遵循“能力评估—资源优化—情境模拟”这一脉络，基于环境约束构建评价“火电”供给的系统动力学模型；基于资源-技术约束构建评价“绿电”供给的Logistic模型；将评价结果纳入以政府视角构建的电源结构优化多目标规划模型中，运用博弈均衡算法对各地电源结构进行优化；进一步将结果纳入以市场视角构建的电力输配优化非线性规划模型中，运用KKT算法对区域间电力交易价格和输配进行优化，从省际层面全景式规划出我国电力市场格局；最后构建中国电力市场仿真系统并进行各种敏感度和情境分析。本研究在理论上建立起一个系统化分析电源结构与电力输配问题的模型体系，在实践上搭建电力市场政策仿真实验室，模拟不同政策情境下的电力市场表现并进行评价，具有重要理论和实践价值。

“火电”比例过高造成的环境污染和体制不畅导致的效率低下问题引发了电力市场化改革，力图通过价格机制来解决电力“从何而来、来自何方、去往何处”等科学问题。对此，构建了涵盖电源侧、电网侧、电力负荷侧和支撑体系四个维度的电力系统调节能力评价指标体系，采用熵值法对全国30 个省区的电力系统调节能力进行测度和分析，发现全国平均的电力系统调节能力较低，不利于“绿电”的充分消纳；从需求侧看，基于省级短期负荷预测中用电结构复杂，区域间相互关联的特点，提出了一种将各省的负荷曲线先分解以厘清其结构构成，再聚类以归纳省份间的负荷共性，最后集成预测以达到更好的效果的分解-聚类-预测方法，预测精度的提升为电力省际调度（特别是日内调度）提供了坚实支撑，同时，考虑到电力需求弹性对省际间电力输送优化结果影响较大而现有的研究均存在因内生性问题而导致的估算结果偏大的问题，将煤炭市场化政策引发的煤炭期货市场上价格波动作为外生工具变量，得到了更为精准的各省电力需求估算弹性系数。在此基础上，构建了多种电力供给来源而需求为相同电力的我国电力省际间输配空间均衡模型，其创新之处是将原有的一种商品的空间均衡模型拓展到多种商品的空间均衡模型，通过理论分析证明其具有稳定的最优解，从实际优化结果看，优化后全国火力发电量比优化前有所提高，电煤需求也相应地增长，但是，由于省际间输电量有所增加，输煤量有所减少，使得输煤输电并举的格局有了较大提升，当增加“绿电”供给时，发现增加幅度对各个省份火电供给及电煤需求的影响较小，究其原因，是目前“绿电”供给量占整个电力交易量份额还相对较小。由此，项目在电煤去产能政策设计、农村清洁电力应用升级和绿色电力消费机理及路径等诸多方面给出进一步优化省际电力输配和消费的政策建议。项目研究在理论上建立起一个系统化分析电源结构与电力输配问题的模型体系，在实践上搭建电力市场政策仿真实验室，模拟不同政策情境下的电力市场表现并进行评价，具有重要理论和实践价值。

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