基于生态系统服务供需流的绿洲城市景观过程模拟研究

Oases have the most concentrated human activities and the most complicated relationships between human and environment in the arid region, playing an important rule for China's "Belt and Road" strategy and ecological civilization construction. Recently, the rapid processes of urban expansion have had obvious impacts on ecosystem services, posing a threat to the sustainable development in oases. How to reduce the influences of urban expansion on ES in oases has become a frontier scientific issue in the geographical science. In this project, our objective is to develop a model for simulating urban expansion in oases based on the supplies, demands, and flows of ES to seek an approach to reduce the impacts of urban expansion on ES through active design. We plan to integrate field surveys, remote sensing techniques, models, and scenario analyses to achieve our purpose. First, we intend to couple the InVEST model and the SPANs model to develop the module for quantifying supplies, demands, and flows of ES in Oases. Then, we plan to improve the cellular automata model to develop the patch-based module for simulating configuration of urban landscape in oases. Through integrating the two modules, we will develop the model for simulating urban expansion in oases based on the supplies, demands, and flows of ES. Finally, taking the Zhangye Oasis as an example, we would use the proposed model to optimize the urban expansion in this region. This study is helpful in implementing the construction of ecological civilization and promoting the sustainable development of oases.

绿洲是干旱区人类活动最为集中、人地关系最为复杂的区域，也是我国 “一带一路”战略和生态文明建设重点关注的地区。绿洲正在经历的快速城市景观过程已经对生态系统服务（ecosystem services，ES）造成了明显影响，对区域可持续发展构成了威胁。如何减少绿洲城市景观过程对ES的影响已成为当前地理科学的一个前沿科学问题。本项目拟结合野外调查、遥感测量、模型模拟和情景分析等方法开展基于ES供给、需求和流的绿洲城市景观过程模拟研究，目的在于寻求通过主动设计减少绿洲城市景观过程对ES影响的途径。拟首先耦合InVEST模型和SPANs模型发展绿洲ES供需流模拟模块，然后改进元胞自动机模型发展基于斑块的绿洲城市景观空间配置模块，在基础上发展基于ES供需流的绿洲城市景观过程模拟模型。最终以张掖绿洲为例，利用该模型优化模拟区域城市景观过程。成果可以为落实生态文明建设、促进绿洲可持续发展提供帮助。

绿洲是干旱区人类活动最为集中、人地关系最为复杂的区域，也是我国“一带一路”战略和生态文明建设重点关注的地区。绿洲正在经历的快速城市景观动态已经对生态系统服务造成了明显影响，对区域可持续发展构成了威胁。如何减少绿洲城市景观动态对生态系统服务的影响已成为当前地理科学的一个前沿科学问题。为此，本项目结合野外调查、遥感测量、模型模拟和情景分析等方法开展了基于生态系统服务的张掖绿洲城市景观动态模拟研究，目的在于寻求通过主动设计减少绿洲城市景观动态对生态系统服务影响的途径。项目进展主要包括以下五个方面：发展了基于斑块的绿洲城市景观空间配置模块，模拟了张掖绿洲生态系统服务的时空格局，发展了基于生态系统服务的绿洲城市景观动态模拟模型，划定了张掖绿洲城市空间增长边界，评估了六项土地利用政策对张掖绿洲生态系统服务和水胁迫程度的影响。基于上述进展，在Nature Communications、Landscape and Urban Planning和Landscape Ecology等期刊共发表学术论文39篇（其中，第一标注9篇、第二标注27篇、第三标注3篇），其中SCI/SSCI论文24篇（第一标注5篇、第二标注16篇、第三标注3篇），CSCD论文14篇（第一标注4篇、第二标注10篇）。培养硕士研究生4人。项目顺利完成了预定研究任务，达到了预期目标。成果可以为完善绿洲国土空间规划、促进绿洲可持续发展提供帮助。

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