中国三四线城市新区“透支型”衰退的现象、机制与应对研究：以江苏典型城市新区为例

A campaign of new town development was launched in China with the institutional transition and unprecedented urbanization since the 2000s. The intensive investment on China’s new towns became one of the most important measures to combat the global financial crisis broken in 2008. As a result of the capital flowing in these new towns from all over the world, the campaign was transformed into a modern version of the Great Leap Forward in history, characterized by the frenzy of expansion of real estate and other spatial assets. However, the oversupply of spatial assets (real estate and other public facilities) emerged in the new towns with the slowing down of China’s economy and public investment in recent years. A large number of new towns all over the country were degenerating into ghost cities. If long trapped in oversupply of spatial assets, the new towns would not avoid the declining process, characterized as high housing vacancy, low using rate of facilities, heavy load of local debt, financial retrenchment, and loss of urbanism, etc. Different from the classic decline in the Western cities, those of China’s new towns were caused by the hyper-investment on spatial assets in a short period, rather than the shrinking of population and economic players in a long period. Hence, the decline process in this project was named as ‘declining by hyper-investment’. .　The empirical research will be conducted as follows. First, a set of indexes and scientific methodologies will be employed to comprehensively measure the decline of selected new towns. Next, we will decode the mechanisms of decline in these typical new towns quantitatively and qualitatively. Third, the proposed study will explore the strategies and policies to cope with the decline through a review of the practice of western cities historically. Especially, the potential of “smart decline” rationale which was proposed in the Western context applied in Chinese context will examine in this section. For the urban planning practices are necessary factors to cause the declines of China’s new towns, the revolutionary pathway of Chinese urban planning will also be discussed in some depth.

2000年代以来，在多重动力推动下，中国进行了史无前例的新区建设“大跃进”运动。近年来，随着中国经济显著下行与公共投资的大规模退潮，许多三四线城市新区的物质空间供给过剩问题正在浮现。由于这些新区物质空间的供给与需求在较长时期内都难以实现平衡，它们将面临较长时期的衰退问题（不同于西方国家普遍的“内城衰退”，中国出现了大量的“新区衰退”）。本研究将这类由于前期过度投资与过度开发而引起的城市衰退定义为“透支型衰退”，并将以江苏若干典型三四线城市新区作为实证研究对象，着重：①构建动态评估模型，采用动静态数据和主客观数据，探索城市新区“透支型衰退”的科学界定方法；②基于定量定性相结合的方法，研究我国三四线城市新区“透支型衰退”形成的内外生机制；③评价国外相关城市衰退治理经验的适用性，探索中国城市新区“透支型衰退”的应对策略及城市规划的变革方向，以期为中国新区大跃进运动的“软着陆”提供一定的科学支撑。

2000年代以来，在多重动力推动下，中国进行了史无前例的新区建设“大跃进”运动。本研究主要关注的科学问题包括三个方面：（1）新城新区空间大规模与快速生产的密码是什么？（2）新城新区大量快速开发的背景下，地方政府如何应对空间开发效率与整体空间发展秩序的维护这一对矛盾？（3）新城新区城镇化与房地产发展存在何种耦合关系？本研究的主要结论为：第一，以江苏南京、常州、苏州等地的典型新城新区为例，运用“国家空间选择性”和“法团主义嵌入性治理”两大理论方法解析了新城新区快速开发的内在政治经济动力与保障机制，是对于传统以土地财政和增长机器等理论方法解析新城新区开发机制的重要创新；第二，通过深入的调查研究，发现了南京、常州等城市涌现出以新城新区为代表的功能区大规模空间生产的现象，为有效保障功能区的大规模空间生产，城市政府的空间治理机制进行了创新，越来越呈现出功能区与行政区双轨合作治理的特征，并通过组织性分权与制度性集权两大逻辑保障都市区空间增长效率的同时维持空间增长的秩序。第三，解析了新城新区城镇化与房地产发展的时空耦合机制，初步建构了两者耦合发展的周期律模型。基于这一模型，指出了一部分新城新区可能较长时期陷入房地产化的发展阶段而难以向更加成熟和健康的阶段进一步提升。本研究认为，房地产化的态势若得不到有效地治理与化解，一部分产业与人口基础较为薄弱新城新区可能会进入“透支型”收缩进程中。最后，本研究的规划与政策主张是，城市政府应审慎地制定和实施具有选择性的空间干预行为，应在遵循市场和社会的实际需求的基础上科学决策；同时，对于出现房地产化态势的新城新区，要及时调整新城新区的发展策略，须从注重新城土地开发与房地产发展的局部耦合主导的发展策略转向于土地、产业、人口与房地产系统耦合协调发展的策略；对于出现透支型衰退趋势的中小城市新城新区，建议及时进行精明收缩式的调整与修复。

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