基于水动力水质模拟的江苏沿海地区环境风险评估

With the rapid development of economy in the coastal region of Jiangsu province, water pollution has become one of the main threats to regional environmental health. Problems of regional environmental risk have become more and more urgent. In this study, hydrodynamic and water quality simulation, coupled with environmental risk source analysis and risk receptor analysis, will be used to evaluate regional environmental risk and develop one integrated regional environment risk assessment model using Fortran language on the plat of Microsoft Visual Studio. Risk curves (relations between possible loss and relevant probabilities) are to be used to characterize the risk. Regional environmental risk evaluation model will be introduced to reflect the characteristics of Jiangsu coastal area, which will make up the deficiency of risk assessment model at the regional scale, especially those in coastal areas. Results of source hazard and receptor vulnerability analysis will allow us to describe aquatic ecological, human health and socio-economic risks individually, and also integrated risks in the region from a series of risk curves. Thus risk contributions of sources to receptors can be ranked, and spatial and temporal variations of regional environmental risk in Jiangsu coastal area can be analyzed by the model; subareas, risk sources, pollutants and seasons with high risk can be all identified. By setting different scenarios on regional development and changing the parameters of the environmental risk model in the reasonable range, we could obtain reliable conclusion on regional risk prediction of Jiangsu coastal area. Sensitive parameters on risk trends in the model could be further identified. In addition, countermeasures and suggestions of environmental risk prevention and control in Jiangsu coastal area could be put forward so as to minimize regional environmental risk in the premise of realizing the development goal.

随着江苏沿海地区社会经济的快速发展，本不容乐观的区域环境安全问题将更加突出。本研究拟将水动力水质模拟与风险源分析、风险受体分析进行耦合，以概率损失风险曲线表征区域环境风险，集成多种算法在Microsoft Visual Studio开发工具上采用Fortran语言编程开发一套完整的基于水动力水质模拟的区域环境风险评估模型；在此基础上，构建符合江苏沿海地区环境风险源、水系、环境风险受体特征的风险评估模型，以弥补我国环境风险评估模型在区域层面尤其是沿海地区理论研究的不足；应用该模型，系统分析江苏沿海地区环境风险的时空变化特征；设定区域发展的不同情景，在合理范围内改变评估模型的参数，模拟江苏沿海地区环境风险变化趋势；通过对不同情景下环境风险预测结果的比较，分析影响该区域环境风险变化的主要因素，进而提出江苏沿海地区环境风险调控对策与建议，为江苏沿海地区环境风险管理决策提供科学依据。

本研究综合蒙特卡洛随机模拟、模糊积分等多种算法计算环境风险指数，采用风险曲线、风险指数的期望值表征区域环境风险。通过水质模型将环境风险源、环境介质以及环境风险受体联系起来，定量解释风险评估相关的三个因素之间的关系，分析风险因子沿着“风险源-环境介质-风险受体”的转移过程。对江苏沿海地区相关基础数据进行采集，运用实测数据率定和验证水质模型参数，完成构建符合江苏沿海地区风险源、水系、受体特征的环境风险评估模型。完成了江苏沿海地区水环境风险评估与分析。本研究构建的评估模型，可以用于预测所有可能的风险源源强情景下区域环境风险受体的风险指数，应用该程序能够快速地完成区域环境风险评估，分析风险源众多、风险受体众多的情况下风险源对区域的水生态、人体健康、社会经济和综合环境污染的风险，也可以用于模拟区域环境风险的各种调控措施的效果，比较不同风险调控方案对区域环境风险的作用大小，进而优选对区域环境风险防控效果最好的调控措施，以期为区域环境管理提供决策支持。

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